According to the latest CNN/ORC poll, Donald Trump has taken back his lead as the Republican front runner with 36% support. Behind him are Ted Cruz (16%), Ben Carson (14%), and Marco Rubio (12%). Since the last poll, Trump has gone up 9 points, but Cruz is also gaining support, going up 12 points. Carson has lost support, going down 8 points, and surprisingly Jeb has very little support (3%) even with the amount of money he has raised.
Many people are still waiting for Trump's initial support to finally subside, but it does not look as if it is slowing down. Every time it seems as if he has finally done something that crossed the line and should cost him his campaign, he somehow gains support. The explanation for this may be fairly simple: education. Among GOP voters who have a college degree, the race is very close, with Cruz slightly leading at 22%, Rubio and Carson tied at 19%, and Trump at 18%. However, among voters without a college degree, Trump leads by far with 46% support, followed by Cruz at 12%, Carson at 11%, and Rubio at 8%. This is a significant statistic (although not very shocking) that will be something very interesting to follow as the election approaches. Personally, I think that statistic is enough to explain why Trump has the lead, and it is very unsettling. The leading Republican candidate is basically being nominated by uneducated Americans.
Trumps extremely strong views have carried him thus far, showing how many Americans feel that he is capable of making our nation great. His main areas that voters support are economy, federal budget, illegal immigration, and (surprisingly) ISIS and foreign policy. Many voters are very opposed to Trump's radical views on certain topics, but many others like his initiative and think he will be a very strong leader. Many seem to be much less concerned about political correctness than in previous elections, which definitely plays out in Trump's favor.
Are you surprised Trump holds such a strong lead? What do you think about the amount of uneducated voters supporting him? Do you think another candidate will eventually pass Trump, and if so who?
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html
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I'm not at all surprised to see that Trump is getting most of his support from voters who lack a college education. Obviously those who have a college education are leaning away from Trump and his radical policies. But it seems that those who do lean towards Trump do so either because they actually like what he has to say or it's because they don't know much about any of the candidates except who gets the most publicity on the media. Because Trump and Hillary Clinton have been the two centers of attention in the media coverage of the campaigns, some uneducated voters only become familiar with just these two candidates if not one or two in addition. The uneducated voters who get most of their info from a place from Fox News will probably conclude that, compared to a socialist, a Secretary of State who can't keep her story strait with an email scandal or a New Jersey governor who likes to shut down major bridges for days at a time, Trump begins to look like one of the better options. Meanwhile, those with a college education are often able to see past what Fox News has to see and make calculated judgments about each candidate's capability to assume the title of "The Leader of the Free World".
Trump's key demographic is the extremist conservatives, as evidenced by his increasingly racist comments, which is why his numbers aren't flagging. The farther he goes, the more ravenous his audience becomes. He taps into a key audience of the GOP: high school educated, intensely evangelical old white people. As Kyle points out, many of these voters receive most of their basic information about current events from Fox News, an arguably biased news network.
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