The divisions between the Obama Administration and the incoming Republican majority have only grown larger midst poor cooperation and an executive action authorizing new legislation for domestic immigration policies. As their feud with Democrats in Congress continues, House Republican leaders face their own fight from within their own ranks; against Tea Party conservatives who fight Republican moderates on spending deals to avoid another government shutdown. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in the House, although not looking to impede Republican-backed legislation, are looking to make sure their policies are included in hybrid bills that are scheduled to be passed early next week, if not later that same week. House Speaker John A. Boehner obviously has a lot on his plate in the coming weeks that needs to be dealt with tactfully in order to not alienate too many supporters and reduce the political divisions between Republican and Democratic politicians.
Mr. Boehner must examine the various components of passing the spending bill and must decide how to accumulate votes without stirring the pot too much within the House. Senate majority leader Harry Reid and other Senate members have noted that the spending bill will pass in the Senate, and that the president is open to passing this legislation without any impedance, Tea Party conservatives and House Democrats remain indefinite in their stance on the bill and are still deciding on the specifics of the final parts of the spending plan. Mr. Boehner’s plan has a complex duality to its structure: the first step allows members of the House to vote against the executive action authorized by Obama and retract the immigration legislation passed recently, while the second step would produce a hybrid spending bill to accompany the vote and reorganize federal funding. The hybrid bill would organize spending until September 30th, or through the next fiscal year, but would only devote funding to the Department of Homeland Security until March, when a Republican majority could institute new spending plans for this specific institution in the bureaucracy.
Although House Democrats don't want to impede progress and want to avoid another government shutdown, they are concerned with the restricted funding to the Department of Homeland Security and feel that Republicans would face a deficit in funding early next year. The short-term results won't produce long-term progress and could possibly lead to a partial government shutdown, which has the capability to produce the same economic and political stresses in the country. However, House Democrats have realized the urgency in the matter and have agreed on many of the points within the bill, guaranteeing Boehner votes for the bill and completing one part of the puzzle.Meanwhile, Republican conservatives see Boehner’s passiveness and concentration on the spending bill rather than advocating for adversity against the immigration legislation as a sign of weakness and surrender to the Obama Administration. Representative Steve King from Iowa, along with 50 other members look to vote against the bill, while Senator Ted Cruz wants to take the controversy over the executive action to the Senate floor rather than pair it with a hybrid bill, thus only encouraging political gridlock rather than progress. Some conservatives have even gone as far to propose cutting funding to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, but practically cannot be accomplished since Congress cannot purposely reduce funding to an agency. While conservatives look only to ignite tensions in Congress, moderates and Democrats should fill up the needed votes for the passage of the bill, thus giving Boehner the victory he needs to keep the federal budget in order and keep the government rolling, for now.
The duality of this bill proposes various problems and creates many roadblocks for the passage of its policies, thus keeping John Boehner and Republicans on their heels until votes can be assured towards their legislation. Does the complexity of the spending plan damage its effectiveness or chance of being passed through the House and the Senate? Are Tea Party conservatives becoming too detrimental to the Republican Party when passing legislation? Do you think a government shutdown is a probable outcome from this controversy?
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I think that the spending bill is a little complicated and could be modified to increase its chances of being passed. Congress has been a mess for a long time now, and it appears that it will continue on this trend. I do not believe that the confusion is being completely made by the tea party activists. All parties in congress are contributing to this meltdown of sorts, and not just one group is the cause. I believe that a government shutdown could definitely be an outcome of what we have seen in congress in the last couple of years. The approval rating of congress is at an all time low, and the government in general is in a pretty fragile state as of now. I think that even if there isn't a government shutdown because of this, there will still need to be change in the future to correct the system that is currently failing. I think that at this time many people are questioning their rust in the government.
In the past government shut downs have done nothing but anger the public more. Now that we have a majority republican senate and house I would hope that a shut down would be less likely, and congress could try to take more action. The inactivity in government lately has been unsettling to many, and with citizen satisfaction down to abysmal numbers work has to be done. Boehner must try to keep the house in order to keep the process of bill ratification running smoothly. If this does not happen we could see more conflict arise and with it a possible government shutdown. The last thing needed is more inactivity that could lead to economic stress. Putting society at a whole in a position where it could be negatively effected is irresponsible and congress should not tolerate this possibility. Instead, compromise must be met, and tension must be kept low. As long as people act like adults and attempt to work things out to help society rather than just themselves, no further problems should impede the government, leading to a shutdown.
Jackson, you make a very interesting point about the complications in the spending bill. However, when talking about the state of Congress right now (and whether another government shut-down is a possibility), it is important to bring up other actions taken recently by Congress.
For this spending bill, I think it is important to note that political maneuvers have thus far played a major role in how Democrats and Republicans broached the topic. While you mentioned that Boehner needs Democratic support to get the bill passed, you didn't bring up how White House officials hope to use that need as leverage to get full-funding of the government. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has shown this attitude in approaching the bill: in a closed Democratic whip meeting this morning, she said "If we stay together, we have leverage." She also told her colleagues that if the GOP goes “further to the right” to garner Republican support, Democrats will drop off. This plan might be in vain, however, as some top Hill Democrats, like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, have already signaled they will support the bill.
Similarly, today, as a matter of fact, House Republicans voted against President Obama's action on immigration. They passed a tea party bill that Hill leaders hope will appease conservatives enough to prevent a government shut down. The 219-197-3 vote is thought of as symbolic, as the Democratic-led Senate does not plan to take it up and Obama has threatened to veto it. Thus, it leaves the question open about whether or not this will be tied into the aforementioned government-funding measures. According to Politico, "some conservatives had wanted to tie Obama’s action on immigration to a funding deal and Speaker of the House John Boehner and his allies in leadership hope the vote today will satisfy them."
Sources:
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/white-house-doesnt-rule-out-boehner-plan-113293.html?hp=b1_l3
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/nancy-pelosi-shutdown-2014-113324.html?hp=t1_r
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/house-immigration-vote-obama-113327.html?hp=t3_r
Jackson, I completely agree that this is a complex situation that could potentially lead to the shutdown of the government. The fact that this spending plan is so involved and is composed of many other factors and bills adds to the difference in opinions. The complexity of this plan allows for more opinions and disagreements to surface. Thus, this will ultimately lead to more duality and conflict in deciding on the plan taking into account the other factors that have to be agreed upon. Although not extremely detrimental to the passing of the legislation, Tea Party conservatives do impact the agreements on the bill. Due to the fact they are so concentrated on the immigration aspect of the deficit bill, it makes it that much more difficult to reach decisions in Congress regarding the rest of it. I definitely think that government shutdown is probable. Although there are enough moderates and Democrats to aid in passing the bill, it is an absolute possibility considering agreements are not being made as of now. It will prove to be very difficult to reach a compromise considering the two sides are such polar opposites regarding the issues at hand and which problems they choose to address. This also exemplifies how it is extremely likely the government can shut down.
I don't think the spending plan's complexity will hamper its ability to be passed. As things stand right now, I think it has a very good chance of passing in the House.
I believe a government shutdown is very unlikely. Less than a year ago, Republicans' attitude towards a government shutdown was vastly different. Conservative GOP lawmakers jumped on board with a push to tie continued government funding to a bill cutting Obamacare, causing a shutdown which was ended by negotiation between mainstream party officials. This proved to be a political miscalculation. The fallout from the scandal was wide-reaching, impacting both Obama and the Democrats, but hit the Republican Party hardest [1]. Thus, last year's shutdown served as a turning point, and has both discouraged the Party from seeking another one, and encouraged them to reign in their radicals.
It is clear that there is no appetite for a government shutdown in Congress today [2]. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who led last year's defunding effort, has been shouted down. Mainstream party leaders have downplayed the number of Republicans siding with Cruz and stressed that they believe taking a hardline at the cost of a smooth funding agreement is unwise. This is good news for the Republican Party, who has long been dogged by a very vocal conservative faction. The Tea Party movement has been a mixed blessing for the Party. On the one hand, it has provided the party with a strong power base and rush of new blood which the Democrats have been unable to reciprocate. On the other, the movement has propelled to power a very conservative wing of congressmen who refuse to compromise or cooperate with the GOP establishment.
This effort to pass a clean budget seems likely to succeed, and bodes well for both the United States and the Republican Party. For the country, it is a rare sign of bipartisanship which signals that the gridlock in Congress may be turning around. This also shows that the Republicans, having gained control of Congress, are willing to take key steps to strengthen their party's position. First, Boehner's strategy to replace lost-cause conservative votes with Democratic votes demonstrates that mainstream Republicans are making an effort to wrestle control of the party back from its radical wing. In addition, Republican leaders are trying to soften their image, shed their reputation as the party of no, and appear more responsible in order to bolster their chances in 2016.
Overall, given the current political situation, I think it is very likely that this spending plan will pass. Ultimately, the Democrats will attempt to posture themselves as having saved Boehner by providing him with the necessary votes to overcome his party's “hell no caucus.” While technically they are correct, the Republicans are clearly the true winner in all of this. The GOP has managed to appease its far-right faction with a bill nullifying Obama's executive action on immigration, an entirely symbolic piece of legislation given the president's veto threat. At the same time, they have put together a bipartisan coalition who will most likely pass the omnibus package for 11 of the 12 spending bills for the fiscal year of 2015. The kicker? The last bill, funding the Department of Homeland Security, will receive just enough stopgap funding to force another vote in early 2015, at which point the Republican Congress will have a shot at gutting funding for the agency responsible for enforcing Obama's executive order [3].
In short, it seems the Republicans may just have their cake and eat it, too.
Sources:
1: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/10/10/the-three-biggest-ways-the-government-shutdown-has-hurt-the-gops-image/
2: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/ted-cruz-spending-bill-immigration-113287.html
3: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/04/congress-cromnibus/19898815/
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