With the beginning of the 2016 election cycle just months away, the slate of presidential hopefuls seems to be getting clearer. At present, the Republicans already have a voluminous list of candidates, including Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul; the Democratic field is, for all practical purposes, Hillary Clinton. Already ahead by an average of 49 points in early polls, Hillary Clinton is a clear frontrunner in a field that is essentially devoid of any competition. A handful of other Democratic politicians have toyed with the idea of running for president, such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but their poll numbers are abysmally low. One possible explanation for the thin Democratic field is that rising talent has been recently nipped in the bud. The past two mid-term elections have been resounding defeats for the Democrats, who lost control first of the House in 2010, and then of the Senate in 2014. Meanwhile, Republicans have been taking over statehouses and governorships at a swift rate. Democrats who might have been up and comers came and went. It is also a possibility that Clinton is simply too formidable a foe for any potential challengers. With over three decades of non-stop political action, the Clinton machine is remarkably experienced with campaigning. For Democrats, 2016 is a make-or-break election; failure would be catastrophic. It is for this reason, perhaps, that they are so averse to running any candidate with less political clout than Hillary Clinton. It may be that she is the last hope for keeping the Democrats in power in 2016. What is your take on the issue? Do you the Democrats stand a chance of winning if they run a candidate other than Hillary Clinton? Is Hillary Clinton the modern equivalent of Bob Dole: a respected and well known stateswoman who cannot garner enough votes for victory?
Source:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/02/2016-democratic-primaries
6 comments:
In my opinion, Hillary Clinton has so much going for her that it would be hard for any other Democratic candidate to gain momentum. There are many voters who remember the "good 'ol Clinton" days, especially liberal voters who hated the Bush years. This said, if Clinton follows similar agendas that her husband used, she'll likely acquire these votes. In addition, I think there's going to be so much media attention on the "husband and wife Clinton team," which is only going to their momentum. I think that if Clinton works the social media, she'll definitely garner the attention, and the votes, to win.
Clinton is the Democrats best choice for winning the 2016 election. If the Democrats want to win the White House and maintain some form of control in the government they need Mrs. Clinton as their presidential candidate. Taking a look at the pool ratings she is winning almost all if not all of them. Out of all possible Democratic candidates she has already had the most amount of air time. It would be very difficult for any other opponent to draw as much media attention as she has during this time. It is also unlikely that Hillary Clinton will be a modern version of Bob Dole, with her average lead of 49 points in the polls. However we will have to wait and see what happens.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Matt, I completely agree with your statement that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president should she decide to run in 2016. Democrats would be hard pressed to find anyone else that has the experience, recognition, and appeal that Clinton does.
Yes, there are those who dislike the idea of another Clinton in office, some because of political beliefs and others because of fear that it makes the presidency too much of a “family” business. However, both Bill and Hillary have made names for themselves independent of the other in the world of politics, and they have largely driven their own successes and failures. Moreover, to be fair, they aren’t the only family tangled up in Washington; the Bush family might end up sending a third candidate to run for office. Therefore, for most Democrats, another Clinton in office isn’t really a big issue.
As such, unlike the newest Bush presidential hopeful, there’s really no question whether or not Hillary will win her party’s ticket. Hillary offers the qualities that Democrats want to see right now in a candidate. She’s a woman; for the Democrats, following the nation’s first black president with our first female Commander in Chief is a very appealing proposition. Her gender and her previous record of helping minorities makes her a very appealing option to female and minority groups, both of which Democrats will have to sweep in order to claim the presidency. That being said, Clinton is also moderate enough, especially compared with Barack Obama and current leaders in the Democratic field, to potentially secure a fair number of independent votes. Clinton is also an experienced stateswoman, having worked for years as Barack Obama’s Secretary of State, a position that tests and prepares individuals for many jobs of the presidency. Not to mention, she terrifies her opponents, in and out of her coalition. In the Democratic party, what Hillary says, Democrats do, which is largely a result of her presence in the party being such a constant over the past three decades. In politics as a whole, her no-nonsense attitude gets things done, and her track record in government makes her a formidable foe in any race.
Most importantly, she’s a household name throughout America. Whether a family is blue, red, or somewhere in between, people know Hillary. So while the Republicans scramble to present a candidate without a tarnished reputation—many options, like Mitt Romney (who recently indicated he would not run), Sarah Palin, and Jeb Bush are associated with single events or actions that don’t exactly bring forth positive images in the minds of the American people—the Democrats can relax. They can simply turn to Hillary. Yes, there are still issues over what happened in Benghazi and whether Hillary is to blame for the events that occurred. Yes, many people disapprove of the way she carries out her political business. Yes, people still question her ability to lead a nation because of her willingness to stand by Bill Clinton during the Monika Lewinsky scandal. Despite all of that, however, Clinton has a degree of recognition and respect that very few Democrats have.
In this election, in which Republicans automatically have the upper hand because a Democrat has held office for two straight terms and, as per the trend of the last few decades, the nation is likely to vote in a candidate from the opposite party, Democrats need every advantage they can get. They need to counteract the gains the Republicans made this past election cycle. They need to present themselves not as “do-nothing” politicians but rather legislators, leaders, and officials who have and will continue to better the nation. They need to sell their candidate. They need a name brand. No one in the Democratic arena can compete, at least in that respect, with Hillary.
Links: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/02/12/hillary-clinton-should-jump-in-now/
Matt, I do agree with your take that Hillary Clinton seems to be the only option for the democratic party for the 2016 election. I believe that she has the reliability needed for a presidential candidate, and I believe that she has gained the trust of the public. This is an extremely important election for the Democrats, given that congress is now in Republican control. For this reason I believe that the democrats will surely run Clinton, as I believe her time has come. I believe that she can garner enough votes for victory, especially when we consider her experience and savvy when it comes to campaigning, from her husbands years in office. As you said Matt, it appears that Hillary already has significant support form the public, and with the type of politician she is, it is difficult for me to see her losing this opportunity for a shot at the presidency.
I don't think the Democrats can run anyone other than Hillary, but I think this is also a moot question given the near-certainty that she will be Democratic nominee. As you stated, she is the front-runner in a nearly-barren playing field (in stark contrast to the intense competition for the Republican nomination). Her standing is further bolstered by extremely positive polling numbers. Quinnipiac University surveys show Clinton to be neck-and-neck with presidential hopeful Rand Paul in key battleground states of Virginia and Colorado. She also ties with Jeb Bush in Virginia, but leads in Colorado, and the reverse for Scott Walker. In Iowa, meanwhile, she is 7 to 10 percentage points ahead of all possible Republican nominees [1]. Clinton is a very serious contender, and the Democrats would have to be insane to pass her up for the nomination.
The Clinton campaign has its path––and its challenges––set out for it. In a 2014 Gallup poll, respondents indicated the top two most positive things about a Hillary Clinton presidency being a record for the first woman president, and her foreign policy experience, at 18 and 9 percent respectively. Responses about the most negative thing were greatly varied, with no predominant answer. Possible negatives varied from Clinton being too liberal, a continuation of Obama, or dishonest, to baggage including Benghazi and Bill Clinton returning to the White House as the First Gentleman [2].
This poll indicates that there are some image problems the Clinton campaign will have to deal with, from her husband's scandals to the Benghazi incident. A serious sticking point has been Clinton's inability to relate to the American public; only 1% of respondents indicated that her presidency would be good for the common people. Clinton drew criticism for a comment that she and her husband were “dead broke” upon leaving the White House (in fact, in 2001 Bill Clinton was getting speaking fees of over $125,000 and Hillary made $2.84 million in publishing royalties) [3]. She will also have to work against declining Democratic popularity, which has seen the party lose control of both houses of Congress, as well as a number of governorships.
Most importantly, however, there is large potential for not only image repair, but also image building. Almost 50% of respondents gave “Nothing” or “No opinion” when asked about the best thing about a possible Clinton presidency; a full 25% showed no opinion towards the worst thing. A large portion of the population is uncertain or ignorant about Clinton, and if she plays her cards right in 2016, she can work this to her advantage. The poll indicates her best selling points would include the precedent of being the first woman president and her extensive experience in government, particularly in foreign policy.
One thing is certain: Clinton is no Bob Dole. Currently the de facto Democratic candidate, with a skillful campaign, she is a serious contender for the presidency.
Sources:
1: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rand-paul-hillary-clinton-neck-and-neck-in-two-swing-state-polls-2015-02-18
2: http://www.gallup.com/poll/168041/clinton-top-selling-point-2016-first-female-president.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Politics
3: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/jun/10/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-says-she-and-bill-were-dead-broke/
i think the probability of Hilary Clinton winning the Democratic candidacy is very high. At this point, she is almost unstoppable. As of right now I don't think any other Democratic candidate can beat her. A lot of this does have to do with all her years of experience, but also her stance as a Democratic leader. Over the past years it has been seen that Democrats have been unhappy with some of Obama's actions and decisions and the negative connotation resulting. I think what make Clinton such a strong candidate is how she does separate herself from Obama and other Democratic politicians, while still keeping the Democrat's belief. This uniqueness and individuality are strong qualities in her. Now in the actual Presidential election, I do think this will be an advantage, but the election will still be tough. After the take over of Congress by the Republican party, it is pretty clear how the people of America feel and support. It really is a make-or-break election for the Democrats. They really have to try to win the public back over inorder to secure their power in the government. I do think Clinton can achieve this and has a good chance of winning. It would a proud moment to see a women finally be elected as President.
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