Hopefully not the Start of a Cold War
Hopefully not the start of a cold war
President Barack Obama is scheduled to host a state visit from Chinese leader Xi Jinping on September twenty-fifth. As China’s economic state is deteriorating, President Obama is expected to take a restrained position in talks with Xi Jinping, as the global economy ties our countries together. However, due to cyber spying on China’s part and China's aggression toward neighbors on the South China Sea, the President may very well come down hard on China, imposing sanctions on Chinese companies thought to be engaged in hacking American businesses and interfering with China's internet. Our President is tasked with walking a fine line in order to make his last sixteen months of office count. Coupled with Xi Jinping’s need to appear strong and hard-edge on protecting China’s interests in the face of economic decline, many think President Obama may have a hard go of it. However, though tensions may be high, neither party wants to pick a fight in this instance. Diplomatic relations are key in this day and age, both due to the globalization of the economy and the growing cooperation between countries. During his stay, Xi Jinping and President Obama will hesitate to do anything rash, but neither of them will be in a position with their constituents where they will be able to back down. There will be more on this story as it develops, and I hope to start a discussion concerning:
- How will this meeting pan out?
- What action or inaction do you think the situation dealing in cyber espionage calls for on the federal level?
- What will this meeting's long-term effects be in terms of relations with China?
3 comments:
This is an interesting post because it is a topic that is severely effecting the United States economy. Our relationship with China and the uncertainty on how the Chinese economy will react to its transition to a smaller growth-rate is making stock owners worry about their assets and the United States economy is consequently suffering. Because of the dependency the United States economy has on China, it is highly unlikely that President Obama will be very aggressive in his conference with Xi Jinping because although he does need to address the Chinese cyber spying, he can not impair our relationship with China to the extent that trade relations would be threatened. Neither country can afford to sacrifice their relationship with the other due to the codependency of the economies and therefore it is unlikely that any violence will break out over the matter. I think there is a definite need to address cyber espionage because as technology progresses it will grow in relevance. The nations need to prepare for this by making laws against inappropriate uses of espionage on the cyber level however it would be more productive to include other nations in this discussion. As for long-term effects of this meeting, if anything, the United States may grow less dependent on China because our economy has been dragged down by the fragile state of the Chinese economy. The potential of the United States becoming more of a export-driven economy is threatening to Jinping especially because the current economic state of distress that China is already in. President Obama needs to take a strong stance on the issue of Chinese cyber spying threatening the privacy of the American citizens to show that the United States will not tolerate such acts but complete separation from China is logistically out of the question.
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/economics/chinas-economy-influences-us-1.aspx
This post struck me as interesting because it concerned foreign affairs and their impacts in the United States instead of typical internal affairs. The global economy is largely influenced by China, and the United States specifically has many affairs tied up in Chinese affairs. The talk scheduled for tomorrow between President Obama and Xi Jinping is essential for the future success of both the United States and Chinese economies, which is why i believe the talk will in no way be hostile, and instead be cooperative. I respectfully disagree with the idea that President Obama will come down hard on Jinping because it is not a response that Obama typically has, and there is far too much at stake. Thousands of United States stock holders have funds tied up in Chinese companies and stocks, and with the floundering economy, they are selling a majority of their shares, therefore harming the United States stock market/economy. To avoid this, Obama must work WITH China and not against them (and address Chinese cyber bullying in a non confrontational way to avoid conflict). Espionage must be eliminated in order for foreign affairs to be kept safe and just, which will need to be addressed. Depending on the voice of the conference their can be any number of longterm impacts, ranging from a healthy relationship with an economy codependacnce to a broken relationship with negative impacts on the U.S. economy and destruction of the Chinese economy.
Due to the recent struggles of the Chinese economy, their recent actions towards their neighbors and the recent news stories regarding Chinese cyberattacks, this upcoming meeting between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping has come to the center of attention and importance. In fact, Kurt Campbell, a former top aide for Obama regarding Asia said, “It's been decades since a meeting has been more important between the United States and China.”
However, despite all the increased press coverage and interest into this meeting it is still very likely that nothing major will come out of this given how closely the two countries rely on each other. In regards to the cyber attacks, the first cyber arms control agreement does seem likely. But, this deal will not cover the intellectual property and government employee data that China has been stealing for years. Similar to the Iran Deal, I think many people will be upset with how much this deal covers. I think after this meeting our relationship with China will remain what it has been over the last decade, a close, dependent yet suspicious and untrustworthy relationship. This meeting will just further the extent of this because even though China’s economy is at a decline currently the truth of the matter is that both countries need each other. It is very likely that nothing out of the ordinary or surprising will happen in the meeting between these two, because neither President can afford to come down hard on the other.
Sources:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/09/24/obama-hopes-to-build-on-rapport-with-china-xi-jinping/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/world/asia/us-and-china-seek-arms-deal-for-cyberspace.html
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