On Thursday, Ohio Governor John Kasich said that he expects to perform extremely well in the Southern states, especially in the Deep South. He is confident that he can win states like Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This may come as a surprise since he mostly appeals to conservatives and is expected to perform well in mostly the Midwestern states. Although he is hoping for the Midwestern states to carry him to a nomination, he knows that he must win some delegates before those states vote. Because of that, he may be making these statements about the southern states to increase their attention on him. He is often soft spoken and can be overlooked in the GOP with more flamboyant candidates, so his confident statements must attract some attention. He was quoted saying, "We're not just going to lay back. I think my message will work really well in the Deep South." While we will have to see if this is true, it will be important to see Kasich on the rise as a threat to win the nomination. After finishing second in New Hampshire, many people are becoming attracted to his independent-minded message.
Do you think Kasich will perform as well as he expects in the South? Were you impressed by his 2nd place finish in the New Hampshire primary? Could he be a legitimate contender for the nomination?
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/11/politics/john-kasich-deep-south-sec-states-mississippi/index.html
7 comments:
I have to admit, when I came to watch the primary that my dad was watching, I said outloud in shock, "John Kasich is in second? I was incredibly impressed with his second place finish. In a race that has all but counted out a handful of men, Kasich was not part of that handful. I don't know, however if Kasich will preform as well as he expects in the South. Despite coming in second, I have not been hearing about Kasich left and right, as we heard with other candidates that ending up doing surprisingly well in other caucuses. Maybe this NH primary is enough to boost Kasich into the light.
I believe the one thing that could continue getting Kasich to be a legitimate contender for the nomination is if his second place result in the primary leads to him having more airtime in debates. Many in the race are basically silent during the debates. Now, with this momentum, the debates may focus more questions on him, giving more time for the public to hear about him.
I think he might be a legitimate contender for the nomination, but I do not expect him to do very well in the South.
Leading up to the New Hampshire primary, Kasich spent all of about a month in the state, attending town halls, shaking hands, etc. His wife hand wrote 1,300 letters. Thousands more were written by his supporters back in Ohio. New Hampshire Senator Gordon Humphrey said it was the best ground game he's seen in 40 years. While he placed an impressive 2nd in the primary, he will not be able to replicate his New Hampshire ground game in every other state on the docket.
However, there is something to be said for momentum. Perhaps the undecided voters in the South will be impressed by his performance and identify with the "love one another" rhetoric. However, it's probably more likely that Cruz and Trump clean up in the Southern primaries and Kasich places around fifth in each. He's sixth (!!!) right now in the latest South Carolina poll. He's even behind Carson!
He might not do very well in the South, but the Midwest could be very productive. Being from Ohio himself, he has a very Midwestern-iness about him. Will that be enough to carry him to the nomination? I doubt it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a41999/john-kasich-new-hampshire-ground-game/
I agree with Olivia, at first I never expected Kasich to have any chance at the nomination. Despite my fanciful tendencies to hope for his nomination, due to his moderate stance, and strong performance, he never seemed to gain the momentum needed to be a real contender. When I heard of his outstanding performance in the New Hampshire primary, I was shocked yet thrilled, this moderate man was finally being recognized. I truly believe that he would be beneficial as a nominee for the Republican party, as he would appeal to the "new" generation of Republicans. However, I also agree with Brendan, I simply do not see him performing well in the south. The Southern States are known for their extreme and traditional beliefs. Therefore, many of them believe that Kasich is too socially liberal, which is simply not the case. Therefore, I believe that he has the best chance with Northern Republicans, while an extremist like Cruz might be the best fit for the Southern political ideals.
I agree with Olivia and Katie that I was very surprised that he is doing so well. I honestly haven't even heard his name for the past few months because he goes under the radar so much compared to the other candidates. Because of this I'm not sure how he will do in future primaries. Kasich claims that he will do really well in the southern states, but he has not been very present in the media, which may foretell that not many voters notice him. However, like Katie said, I'm happy that the more moderate candidate is finally being noticed. This could be very promising in the future and offer a nice compromise for many voters in the midst of the extreme left or right candidates.
I am shocked that Kasich has recently had such significant success due to the fact he never seemed to stand out as a leading contender prior to the New Hampshire Primary. However I firmly believe that the election comes down to one factor and that is for the candidate to compose a coalition that is representative of the entire nation. Kasich proved that he was able to capture New Hampshire's attention however it is not that easy in the south with other competition from the same party. With front runner, Donald Trump essentially dominating the Republican vote in New Hampshire it will be difficult for Kasich to overcome his lead. However Brian mentions his independent minded style has attracted many which is certainly an attractive characteristic of his candidacy. His optimism along with his energy that he has seemed to recently exhibit will certainly help his run for the republican nomination. The south is known by candidates to be predominantly populated with Republican's, allowing the right wing to take dominance in this section of the country. Because of this, the competition lays within the party. Although Kasich is still competing against Sanders and Clinton, the larger fight lays within his own party lines. This will be the greatest challenge for him in the south. Despite all of this, I do believe Kasich remains a legitimate contender for the republican nomination. His success in the New Hampshire primary proves this. However due to the competition within his own party, many obstacles await his arrival. Overall his success in the New Hampshire primary came as a shock to me, but I think that in itself attests to the volatile and unpredictable style of this very one of a kind election.
While Kasich seems like a very nice man that would enjoy small talk about the weather we're having, he will probably be a New Hampshire one-hit-wonder. The Economist called him "too pragmatic and, in a fraught time, too genial for most Republican primary voters."
Let's start with the pragmatism first. While this line is very clearly a dig at the illogical Republican frontrunners like Trump, Cruz, and Carson, it has some truth to it. As everyone in this thread has said in some capacity, Kasich is a moderate on most issues, only mildly conservative on gun control, taxes, and business. However, with an increasingly reactionary trend in the Republican party since the rise of the Tea Party, hardline-conservatism-or-nohting seems to be the name of the game. Kasich's talk of feasibility is better suited for someone who's already nominated to be a Republican candidate.
As for the geniality, this is pretty obvious after watching Kasich debate. He's a nice guy, but doesn't stand a chance against the attention-magnets of Trump and increasingly Cruz. Most conservative voters want a candidate they can roar in support of, not nod their head thoughtfully at.
Source: http://www.economist.com/topics/approved
I am with Olivia in saying that Kasich getting second place in the New Hampshire primary came as a surprise. Prior to now I barely payed attention to him, largely because of the loud voices that have been dominating the Republican party, but additionally because I didn't see him as a strong candidate due to his low poll numbers. Furthermore, Kasich got 8th in the Iowa caucus with only 1.8% of votes; I though it would be only a matter of time before he dropped out. Clearly I was wrong to think this. Kasich was able to rake up 15.8% of the Republican votes in New Hampshire and certainly this will do great things for his publicity and campaign. His statements saying he looks forward to doing well in the Southern states surprise me but, then again, Kasich seems to be full of surprises. Therefore I will refrain from making any sure statements against him. It is nonetheless peculiar why Kasich can feel so confident. He has not been focusing his campaign on the southern states and one of his biggest differences from the other Republican candidates is his support for Obama's medicare and many southerners are looking forward to leaving Obama behind. Nonetheless, Kasich's grass roots and extensive governing experience may make him very appealing. Also, what will help Kasich even more so is the work he did to balance the federal budget in the 1990s because he will be able to argue to deficit-minded voters that he can do the so again as president. With these qualifications it is possible that Kasich will continue to do well as he offers Republican voters a more serious candidate as an alternative to Trump.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/21/us/elections/john-kasich.html
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=new%20hampshire%20primary&eob=m.059f4/R/2/short/m.059f4/
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