This debate will give Clinton
and Sanders a chance to make up in the areas they’ve been lacking before the big
day. Clinton, especially, has a lot to do if she wants to have a good standing
on Tuesday. Though she remains the national front-runner, polls show that New
Hampshire favors Sander over her—a new poll from yesterday displays Sanders’ 33-point
lead over Clinton. The University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey showed
that 63% of registered Democrats favored Mr. Sanders, compared to just 30% who
support Mrs. Clinton.
Most importantly, to
improve her standing, Mrs. Clinton must win the favor of young voters—many of
which support Sanders. Exit poll data showed that Mr. Sanders was the favorite
of 84% of Iowa caucus goers between the ages of 17 and 29. Mrs. Clinton won
just 14% of that group. This may be because so far, Clinton has simply been relying
on her experience as a former secretary of state, senator and first lady. But young
voters want to see how Clinton can bring concrete change to people’s lives. She
must focus more on what she sees as the larger vision and purpose of her
presidency, rather than a bunch of incomplete policy proposals.
As for Mr. Sanders, the debate is
a chance for him to improve his standing with minority groups. Up until now, the
race has played out in two primarily white states: Iowa and New Hampshire. However,
as the race continues, Sanders will have to face Nevada and South Carolina which
have a substantial amount of Hispanic and African-American constituencies. It
would definitely benefit Sanders if he could win over some of Mrs. Clinton’s
minority supporters. Sanders may refer to his work on behalf of the civil
rights movement and share some of his proposals to assist poverty in minority
neighborhoods including a $15 minimum wage and a government-run
“Medicare-for-all” health system.In addition, Sanders must find
ways to win the loyalty of the older voters, most of which have moved towards
Mrs. Clinton. His desire to expand Social Security benefits and to lift the cap
on income subject to the taxes that fund Social Security may help him gain
support.
I believe that though it looks
like Sanders will be winning the New Hampshire primary, it will be harder for
him to replace Clinton as the national front-runner. As for the debate, they
will have ample time to address the issues above. Iowa definitely boosted
Sanders confidence and scared Clinton—I expect them to bring their A game today
especially with the buildup of aggressive attacks back and forth on Twitter.
What do you expect from the debate
tonight after such close results in Iowa? Do you think it could change the
predictions for New Hampshire?
If you are answering this after
watching, who do you think won and why? How will the results of the debate affect
the primary or the long-term election?
11 comments:
Both Sanders and Clinton spoke with Anderson Cooper and the New Hampshire people and argued that they were the more progressive candidate. I think that this term and its implications will be an important topic for tonight's debate. It will be especially important for Hillary because many worry if she is to moderate. I also think Sanders will bring up the funding that Clinton gets from super PACs because that goes right against the progressive values. He will also most likely try to capitalize on Clinton’s uncomfortableness when talking about the super PACs and the Iraq War. On the other hand, Hillary stood by her beliefs and said she found it amusing that Sanders was acting as the “gatekeeper” or progressivism. Many also argue that Clinton is a better general-election candidate and thus they would vote for her. I think that if Hillary can succeed in convincing people that she is progressive she may have a better chance of winning or at least coming close to Sanders in this primary. However, as I write this the live poll from New Hampshire predicts Hillary at a 4% so I don’t know how much ground she can make up through this debate.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/democratic-debate-highlights/index.html
Both candidates have a lot to prove after the Iowa caucus. Hillary has to prove that she will make positive changes and disprove that she is "owned by wall street". She must win the support of the young and minority voters that she has so far lacked. She also has to show her current supporters that she will stand strong in the face of the rather unexpected Sanders threat. She must seem reliable, trustworthy, and honest. Unfortunately, many of her critics claim that she is none of those three things. Sanders, on the other hand, must prove that he truly does have a fighting chance. The Iowa caucus left him nipping at Hillary's heels, so he must now prove that he is more than the liberal old man yelling at the establishment. He must prove to be electable and dependable all while maintaining his strong base of liberal voters. The results in Iowa are both a blessing and a curse for Sanders. Obviously, he has gotten much farther and garnered much more support than most people ever thought possible. Iowa bolsters his campaign and shows his supporters that he has a fighting chance. At the same time, he must prove to others that are on the fence, or, like Claire mentioned, believe that he still has no shot at presidency, that he will not lose by *this* much. The fact of the matter is that he came extremely close to Hillary's numbers, much closer than anyone could have predicted, but he didn't quite beat her. So, he must show Democrats, Independents, and weak Republicans that he still has a chance. There is much riding on tonight's debate, so hopefully people in New Hampshire and all over the country tune in to see it play out.
I feel that in this debate we will definitely see Clinton take a much more forward and direct approach about how she plans to lead the nation once in office, highlighting her long list of credentials, due to the razor thin 'victory' she had in Iowa. As Gursimar pointed out Clinton desperately wants to win over the younger votes, although in the end I don't think that this group will be the deciding factor for her making it to the general election. Young voters have the lowest percentage of voting of all the age groups, and on top of that this isn't even a general election - therefore while it is important not to neglect an entire age demographic, her winning them over isn't going to be the make or break of her campaign. As for this debate though, I don't think that Hillary is going to be able to make much of a difference for the New Hampshire primary this up coming Tuesday due to the massive lead Bernie Sanders currently has over her at this point (and one that I don't see changing in the days leading up to the primary). Instead Hilary will be using her time at the debate tonight to expand upon her platform and reassure her supporters that she is the correct choice, which will help her at later primaries. Bernie definitely will try to continue to build off the momentum he has since the tie in Iowa, highlighting that people really do want the change he is talking about. After New Hampshire, Bernie really isn't leading too much in the polls, and therefore he will also be using this debate tonight no so much to help him on Tuesday, but instead for everything that comes after, where he really will have to fight to win. Therefore I think we will start to see more confrontation between the two candidates, as Claire pointed out, over who is more progressive than who, as well as stressing the short comings of the other candidates (use of PAC money for Hillary, and Bernie's extreme programs and their funding).
First of all, let me be the only one to say I'm going to miss sweet, naive O'Malley. That said, let's jump into this.
It's no secret that Sanders has won over the hearts of voters under 30. However, though he hasn't has success here yet according to Gursimar, I think Sanders will be able to do well in constituencies dominated by minorities. His policies definitely benefit of minority groups, which will serve him well when he faces minority voters in Nevada and South Carolina- especially since these two states have supported Clinton thus far (Prokop).
Hopefully this debate will bring out some new fire on the Democratic side; the Iowa caucus was a little too close for comfort! Both candidates are going to have to bring something totally new and groundbreaking to the table if either of them hopes to grab the majority. I also look forward to seeing how things play out to New Hampshire. I feel like Clinton and Sanders both stand a good chance there; Hillary, for her moderate-liberal bent, and Sanders because he'll be so close to his home base.
Overall, things should get intense tonight: "Sanders has more aggressively questioned Clinton's progressive credentials, criticizing her for raising money on Wall Street and voting for the Iraq War. And Clinton has been increasingly focused on gun control, one of the few issues on which she has a more liberal record than Sanders — while sowing doubts about Sanders's electability. Expect all these topics to come up quite a bit tonight" (Prokop).
Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/2/4/10911660/democratic-debate-time-schedule
I agree with Raswaglia that Clinton is likely upset after the Iowa caucus where she only narrowly beat Sanders by less than one percent and is increasingly concerned about her lack of support from young voters. Without O'Malley there I suspect that this debate will be the most intense one yet and that Clinton will make a last ditch effort to pull in young voters from New Hampshire. However, as this state is so close to Sander's home I doubt that she will be able to beat him in this primary. I agree with Gursimar that this is not indicative of the rest of the country. Older voters are more likely to go to the polls than young ones which offers an advantage to Clinton on the national stage. New Hampshire is an older state with much of its under thirty population moving out. For this reason, Clinton will be given some advantage at the polls in New Hampshire but not enough to win. The debate will reflect the increased pressure and tensions between the two candidates. Without O'Malley there as a distraction and buffer between, I expect that much of the friendly exchanges and kind words between the two candidates that has existed in past debates will be replaced with more aggressive talk and emphasis on the differences in their policies.
As stated by those above, it is certainly so that Clinton lacks in terms of gaining votes from the youth. Bernie's appeal has allowed him to build a coalition of many young voters which he is able to hold above Hillary. However,in many circumstances, I believe both candidates fall where they should fly. Hillary has the power to appeal to the youth however she has decided to focused on the older population as they have greater voter turnout. Bernie, who has already captured the youth continues to pump adrenaline in that age group. However he has yet to express this equal energy to voters who are older. This being said, I think the debate tonight will be the best thus far. Not only has Iowa changed the presidential race, but both Clinton and Sanders now have an accurate idea of what groups they have to appeal to in order to gain votes. This will cause a complete shift in what we have seen throughout the race so far. Now, it is not so much gaining favor from a multitude of groups, but rather the groups of people who did not favor them in Iowa. This will now cause Bernie and Hillary to focus in on specific issues which will allow many important questions and answers to be covered in the debate. Therefore, I believe the debate will certainly impact the New Hampshire Caucus because their voices are now being emphasized as the intensity of the race heightens. Any argument they make from now and forward will impact voter opinion and will sway certain voters toward one candidate or the other. Gwen stated that "kind words between the two candidates that has existed in past debates will be replaced with more aggressive talk and emphasis on the differences in their policies" which I completely agree with. Prior to the Iowa caucus Bernie and Hillary had been accompanied by Martin O'Malley. That being said, his absence will create the race between Sanders and Clinton even more intense, and aggressive as well. This is now the time Clinton and Sanders begin to truly fight for office. This will be beginning of an even stronger battle for the democratic representation and the fight to ultimately win the Presidency.
The majority of the media/public eye has been on the GOP debates, for a variety of reasons -- namely, Trump, the sheer number of candidates, and general animosity between the candidates. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this DNC debate hits a new rating high for 2016 debates. Bernie, within a few weeks, has emerged from obscurity into the mainstream, and now must be considered as a legitimate contender for the both the Democratic nomination, and the presidency. Hillary has got to know that her bacon is on the line in this debate. Bernie is surging, and you have to think he has the big "mo." Hillary is still reeling from recent revelations that she possessed 22 top-secret emails on a personal sever (NY Times). If this is true, which it appears to be, Hillary cannot be trusted with the presidency, and I think a lot of democrats are starting to be more wary of her dubious ways. Bernie is starting to gain ground not only because of younger demographics' affinity for his uber-liberal views on social issues (which I think is one of the biggest positives he could bring to Washington), and because of his overall genuine persona and proven consistency in government. Hillary needs to right the ship, and set the whole email thing straight. For me, I think Hillary is as accomplished, if not more, than any candidate in the field -- but I can't trust her to lead our nation if she circumventing government rules to exchange secret emails on her Gmail account. She needs to show me, and other potential DNC (and American) voters that we can trust her. I don't care about how progressive she is, I care about how trustworthy she is. The winner of this debate, and this primary, could be well on their way to winning the election
I agree with Claire that I think a major talking point of tonight will be who really is the progressive candidate. In the town hall debate, Sanders accused Clinton of not being a true Progressive and stepping away from the Party's base to which Clinton replied with a cool "I'm not going to let that bother me...I know where I stand." However, I think Sanders will continue these attacks, citing PACs and paid speeches as evidence to which Clinton may have difficulty responding to as she did when Anderson Cooper questioned her about her paid speeches at Goldman Sachs. As the race grows tighter, we have seen both campaigns grow in negativity. Both have claimed to be disappointed by the negative tone of their opponent's campaign as they both want to be seen as "taking the high road" whilst making their counter look bad. Tension between the two is definitely building, especially since the Clinton's narrow win in Iowa, and this will be evident in the debate. I think Clinton will come out very strong as she tries to break Sanders' evident momentum. I don't think the debate will significantly effect the New Hampshire primary, but if Clinton performs well it may help her close the 33 point predicted gap. I don't think the results of the primary will affect the national vote especially because neither Iowa nor New Hampshire is representative of the whole country, and with Clinton taking Iowa and Sanders likely taking New Hampshire, the momentum will be split.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/democratic-town-hall-highlights/
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-democratic-debate-clinton-sanders-go-head-head-n510301
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/5th-democratic-debate-what-you-need-to-know.html#
I believe and agree with what most people have said already it will more than likely come down to the candidate that shows the public who is ready to become the determine and progressive leader that America needs. Unlike the Republican nomination race, the Democratic nomination race has been (for the most part) less about insulting the other candidates rather the main two candidates, Hilary and Bernie, have been just trying to get the public's support the old fashion way: persuasive talk, not insults. In recent reports, Bernie has been accusing Hilary of many things, but their more about her political life rather than her personal life. I believe that during the debate if Clinton is able to pull through with a strong one, she might find herself comfortably above or close to Bernie. Yet, I believe that this debate won't have a huge impact on the New Hampshire primary since the only thing (in my opinion) that is really worthy to decide who wins is the candidate that shows honesty and poise.
Coming off of a very close caucus in Iowa, Clinton will either be looking to solidify her lead at the primary, or Sanders will pull ahead. Either one of these options will largely be affected by this debate as it will give them one last chance to lay out the issues that they will be focusing on. I agree with Ally and claire that a big aspect will be who is the more progressive leader, and what they can show to the American people. Bernie has accused Hilary of not being a true progressive, and said that she is in the pocket of big business. If this gets connected to her name it would be a big issue for her campaign, therefore, she needs to use the debate to showcase her progressive ideals, especially in a typically liberal state such as Rhode Island. Sanders has a lot of momentum coming off the the caucus however clinton still has the win, so they both will need to capitalize on the current momentum that they have, and make a good case at the debate to influence voters int he up coming primary.
I agree with Gwen Byrne and raswaglia's statement that Clinton is most likely upset after the Iowa caucus as she only narrowly beat Sanders by less than one percent! Personally, I was surprised how slim the difference between Sanders and Clinton's votes were. I was expecting Sanders to beat Clinton by at least five to ten percent because of the support he has from young voters. As Gursimar touched upon in her launch, young voters is definitely an area of people that Hillary should focus on reaching out to as it will help her in the upcoming primaries. Furthermore, the youth is extremely vocal. All over social media there are videos and pictures of high schoolers and college students vocalizing their commitment towards Trump. Trump is leading the polls and therefore his support among the youth is only helping him in the long run. As a result, if Clinton tried to gain support from the youth, I believe she will rise in the polls and have a shot at a presidential nomination.
Post a Comment