As the nomination game continues, the candidates next target is South Carolina. In the Republican field there still remains no clear Republican threat to Trump's dominance, which is becoming increasingly alarming to GOP leaders. On the Democrat front, Bernie Sanders major victory in New Hampshire will be tested with more moderate Democrats.
It is expected that Trump will once again win at this primary, as he has led in every South Carolina poll since July. Although he may face some greater scrutiny here than he has anywhere else so far, namely due to the fact he is the only Republican candidate who does not favor increased military spending (in a state with nearly 60,000 military retirees). As for the second Republican candidate, Ted Cruz, he will once again be relying on evangelical voters who helped him in Iowa. Although the evangelical vote here is less straightforward than it was in Iowa, with these far right Christians being divided among Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and even Carson. Then there is Jeb Bush who after beating out his Florida rival, has helped to create some momentum for his campaign as he enters a state where he has invested a lot of money and has set out to garner a lot of support. To top it all of he also has been backed by South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. As for Rubio who has faltered in the past week after a less than stellar debate performance and weak showing in New Hampshire, has come out swinging against the other candidates in an attempt to bolster himself up leading into this primary - calling out Trump for his inexperience in foreign policy and Cruz for his questionable economic voting record. Then there’s Kasich, who managed to pull of a second place finish in New Hampshire much to everyone's surprise. Due to his success he has given himself some room to breathe, with his supporters saying he doesn’t need to do as well in South Carolina as he did in New Hampshire. Kasich is mainly looking beyond this Southern primary towards contests in states such as Michigan, Illinois, and other Midwestern states in March, so don’t be expecting too much from him in this upcoming primary.
As for the Democrats, whose primary date is a week later than Republicans in South Carolina, it is expected that Hillary Clinton will be the winner. From the beginning she has felt strongly about how well she will do here given the diversity and more moderate ideology Democratic voters in the state have. Namely she is counting on support from African Americans due to her promise to that she will build off of Obama’s record. Bakari Sellers, a former state representative has said that, “black voters would embrace her as a practical fighter for issues they care about, rather than rallying to Mr. Sanders’s idealism.” Bernie Sanders on the other hand is facing an uphill battle in trying to hold onto his momentum heading into South Carolina, where his base of white, liberal voters is less dominant than it has been in Iowa and New Hampshire.
I personally think that Trump will win South Carolina as has been predicted and that Jeb Bush will have a strong showing there that will help him build more momentum as the primaries continue. Furthermore I think that Clinton will win South Carolina with Bernie Sanders starting to lose the major momentum he built up in these past two primaries, potentially giving us a taste of how he plans on combating her dominance in most other states. Although I’m not sure if the outcome of this primary will be really telling about who the nominees will be. As Rubio said, "I don't think anyone is going to wrap this up in South Carolina or Nevada. This is a unique election.”
What do you think the outcome of the South Carolina Primaries will be? How are the candidates going to be able to continue with their momentum? What obstacles do they face heading into this Southern Primary? Do you think the results of this South Carolina Primary will be indicative of the future, or will it be a turning point for some candidates?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/us/politics/south-carolina-primary.html?_r=0
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/10/politics/new-hampshire-primary-results/
5 comments:
I agree with your predictions, especially the Democratic ones. Although Sanders has given Clinton a good run for her money (quite literally), I don't think he'll be able to hold onto the lead with the more moderate Democrats of South Carolina. Of any state, he was most likely to perform well in New Hampshire and he definitely delivered (despite the whole delegate situation). Now, though, he must prove himself as a moderate enough candidate to appeal to the more central voters. I'm not sure if he's likely to change positions so largely, though, in the next few weeks, so I think that his supporters will either have to make a really, really good showing in SC or (more likely) he'll lose this primary. Clinton has an easier fight, as she really is a shoe-in for moderate Democrat. However, there might just be enough "anyone but Hillary" supporters to give her a tough time.
On the Republican side, bizarrely, I agree that nobody will be able to touch Trump. I think his success has an almost "whoa, this guy could be our general election candidate!" novelty to it. Also, as much as I despise pretty much everything he stands for, many people aren't so vehemently against him and his "fresh-faced" politics and racy ideas excite people to vote for him in primaries. I think Kasich's tactic that you mentioned is an interesting one. Unless people suddenly get sick of Trump and look for a more sane candidate, I'm not sure that he has much of a chance. Rubio's campaign will really live or die in South Carolina, in my opinion. If he suffers so great a defeat as he did in New Hampshire, I think he will have to seriously consider the longevity of his campaign. If he is luckier this time, he could definitely spin his campaign in a Clinton-esque "comeback kid" way. But, as the man himself said, the election won't be decided in the next few primaries. The field is simply to varied and too large to all come down to one or two primaries. We can expect more headlines and excitement for quite a few more months.
I agree with you, Amanda, that Trump and Clinton will likely be the winners of South Carolina. Trump's fiery rhetoric has gained him much support in South Carolina (just like in other states), but I do think that the South Carolina primary will nonetheless be a close race between him and Cruz. Cruz's experience and steadfast conservatism will likely appeal to many voters in this part of the Bible Belt, and so Trump will probably not have a substantial margin of victory in this election. I believe that for the rest of the Republican race, Cruz and Trump will remain the two top choices for the nomination, leaving the others in the dust.
On the Democratic side, Sanders is almost guaranteed to lose in South Carolina, due to the large numbers of moderate democrats in the state and his poor appeal to African-Americans in the state. However, according to NPR, a key demographic may be as critical to the Sanders campaign in South Carolina as it was in the past two elections: college students. A growing number of African-American students in South Carolina are "turning lukewarm on Clinton" (NPR), and much like other students across the country they are being drawn to Sanders' revolutionary economic policies. Thus, although it is very unlikely that Sanders will win South Carolina, there is the possibility that he will reap a decent amount of delegates from a strong showing by young voters. Sanders will certainly lose some of the momentum that he gained from Iowa and New Hampshire, but at least South Carolina will not be an utter flop for him. In addition, the fact that Sanders is largely expecting this loss means that it will not be as much of a blow to his campaign. The Senator from Vermont knows his strengths and he plays to them very well, and so I do not think that South Carolina will be representative of his campaign's future. The national Democratic polls show a rapidly narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders, and so it is unlikely that a loss in South Carolina will be indicative of Sanders' failure as a candidate.
Source:
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466356888/in-south-carolina-young-black-voters-could-put-holes-in-clintons-firewall
I agree strongly with El KittyCat. I think Trump is probably going to win the caucus in South Carolina, mostly because he's stirred up so much passion. However, I think Trump will actually underperform. If Trump does what he did last time before a caucus and skip out on a debate again, Cruz may sweep in and take his spot as top dog.
I do agree with that Sanders has no chance of winning the South Carolina caucus, to an extent. No one thought Sanders would do well in Iowa, and Iowa was historically close. Nearly every article I read about the Iowa caucus believed that Bernie Sanders lost the numerical race, but gained much more in proving he was a worthy competitor of Clinton. While I don't think Sanders is suddenly going to sweep the South Carolina polls, I do think he may end up scoring higher than previously thought. Iowa rallied a lot of attention and as El KittyCat said, if Sanders can get college students on the move, he may end up closing his gap with Clinton in South Carolina.
It will be interesting how this all plays out, but the most likely outcome is, like everyone said, Clinton and Trump. Sanders and Cruz may come in close behind, but the real gauge of how well the candidates are doing will come from the margin of victory.
I agree with Sarah that current predictions regarding the results of the South Carolina primary are likely correct. Trump has been showing a consistent lead in this state for months and highly doubt that there would be any last second turn around towards another candidate. However, the second, third, and so on place that fall after him are far more questionable. With so many candidates in the field of the GOP, some with overlapping opinions and ideologies, it is a question of which issues voters in this state hold closest. Despite Kasich's apparent second place victory in New Hampshire I doubt that it will carry over into South Carolina since he has not invested as largely as Bush has nor does he strongly appeal to evangelical voters that would likely choose Cruz. The Southern primaries will be especially interesting for the Republican party as there will likely be a varying opinion from state to state on which candidate best fits the interests of that specific demographic. Although Trump has been leading for a while, I believe there is plenty of time for things to turn around and other campaigns to pick up momentum. Jeb may see wins with his more moderate stance and Cruz may pull in votes from the evangelical crowd dispersed throughout the south. The Democratic primaries seem a bit less unpredictable, with Hillary holding a lead in a number of states and being able to rely on the African American vote in the South. Additionally, Hillary's practical and more moderate approach will likely win over southerners with more ease than Sander's drastic plans for revolution throughout the country. Overall, the primary race is only beginning and changes in campaigns and voter favoritism are yet to be determined.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/14/trump-and-cruz-battle-ahead-of-south-carolina-primary/
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/13/466659882/4-things-to-know-about-the-south-carolina-primaries
I largely agree with your predictions about the primary, as well as the things Gwen and Sarah have been saying. I don't think this one primary will decide who the nominees will be, as Sarah said, although it may make or break some campaigns.
I really think that South Carolina will be a shoe-in for Hillary. His campaign has a lot of momentum, especially after his handy victory in New Hampshire. However, this was in a state that borders his own, with many young white liberals just itching to feel the Bern. Clinton will probably take the cake in most states with a Republican majority, except maybe Texas, where city dwellers are decidedly more liberal than the classic rural Republicans.
In the Republican field I think this one will go to Trump, with substantial showings from Kasich and Cruz. Trump's ideal voter groups are very prevalent in South Carolina, where most non-religious Republicans are likely to align with Trump in rural areas. The second and third place will probably go to Cruz, evangelical favorite, and Kasich, a moderate with much promise after New Hampshire.
Source:http://www.npr.org/2016/02/13/466659882/4-things-to-know-about-the-south-carolina-primaries
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