Despite the recent rise of Bernie Sanders in the current political meta game, a poll conducted by CNN and ORC shows that Hillary Clinton is still holding strong with an 18 point lead in the Democratic race. Other candidates in the race, including Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb and Martin O'Malley seem to be lacking the appeal of the American people. This is especially evident in Sander's state of Vermont, as demonstrated in a poll by Suffolk and USA Today. Within this poll, all three candidates hold less than 2% of the combined support in the state. On the other hand Clinton continues to demonstrate good numbers with 43% support in the state, while Sanders only comes in at a surprising 23% support. Additionally, even though the race is far from over and only points to signs of increased competition, the poll conducted by CNN put forth that 54% of those surveyed would not be in favour of more Democratic debates. Which in reality, oddly contradicts the state of the race at present.
One bright spot for Sanders came in the third-quarter of campaign fundraising, in which he out-raised Hillary by $3 million, netting $28 million total. At this pace, Sanders is due to beat the collections of President Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 elections, as he has had almost twice the amount of contributes compared to President Obama at this point in the race. Unfortunately for Sanders, he still lags behind Hillary, as Sanders lacks Super PAC, in total donations and is no where near the total of what the President earned in his 2007 campaign. However, supporters of Sanders understand that the situation could have been much worse than it is now and there is much opportunity within the race.
The CNN/Orc Poll conducted was executed between the dates of September 24th and September 28th, surveying 1,000 voters with 430 from the Democratic primary.
Ultimately, despite the continued rise of Sanders, Hillary seems to be chugging along, gaining superiority in Vermont and across the entire country all the while. If Sanders wishes to come out on top, he will certainly need a comprehensive course of action. What does Sanders have to do to catch up with Hillary? Does success correlate to his increased fundraising? What does Hillary need to do to stay ahead?
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html
http://time.com/4058075/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-barack-obama/
http://img.ccrd.clearchannel.com/media/mlib/15172/2015/08/default/hillary_sanders_0_1439284535.jpg
7 comments:
Undoubtedly, Bernie Sanders has made amazing progress from his initial polls. He has raised over 24 million dollars in the past three months and exceeded Obama's previous total. While this is true, Sanders still faces a hugely uphill battle. Every year the cost of running a presidential campaign has risen, so Sanders money foothold over Obama isn't as significant as it seems to be. Clinton holds the majority of voters and had still raised more money than Sanders. In order for Sanders to start to gain more voters, he may have to go against his "socialist" ideas and become more moderate because at this rate, it is very unlikely that he will be able to win the primaries with just the far-left voters. For Hillary, she just needs to stay out of controversy. One of the main reasons Sanders was able to get so popular was because Clinton had caused so much controversy with the email scandal and more. If she stays just out of the light of the press while still gain following, she will have this election in the bag. That is, to say, that Biden does not join the running.
https://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/
I know from the experience of being on Bernie Sanders' mailing list that he and his team campaigned really, really aggressively to meet their fundraising goals. He has to, as he is the only candidate (besides obviously Trump) who isn't backed by an affiliated SuperPAC--he even asked an unaffiliated SuperPAC to stop donating to him. Besides lack of funds, Sanders also has the issue of being extremely far left. Though this speaks to many people right now, especially young liberals, I'm not sure it will translate to a productive presidency. His most recent bills in the Senate, covering universal health care and free college tuition, attracted no co-sponsors. Not even Democrats. Obviously, he is an individualist and this is often unpopular in government. If he was president, he would meet a massive amount of opposition from Republicans and may not be productive.
Also, many supporters of Bernie Sanders are not the type to vote in primaries, so Clinton has the advantage in this regard. Sanders has done an amazing job of speaking to young people and his success is extremely surprising, given all of the things working against him, so it may be possible for him to scale the presidential mountain.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-bernie-sanders-would-transform-the-nation/2015/09/30/d3b57b8e-616a-11e5-9757-e49273f05f65_story.html
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-only-presidential-candidates-withou/
I think that in today's society, campaign financing plays an essential role in a candidate's eventual success in the election. I think that Hillary should be worried as Bernie Sanders is creeping up on her in the polls and in fundraising. In the past three months, he was able to bring in $25 million, almost as much as Hillary. Another important statistic is that he has twice as many individual donors than Obama did in 2007. This is important because more donors means more votes whereas fewer donors but more money will not directly translate to more votes. The graphics in the Time article illustrate how Sanders is creeping up. Hillary was relying on her immense financial advantage to propel her past Sanders and his #FeelTheBern supporters, however, this new surge in funding for Sanders should make her campaign worrisome. With this new money, Sanders will be able to fund commercials in order to get his message out to important states such as New Hampshire and Iowa. While Clinton technically raised a few million dollars more, Sanders was able to do so in a more cost-effective way, holding only 7 events while Clinton held 58. In order for Hillary to stay ahead, she will need to minimize the backlash from the email scandal and refocus her campaign on the issues at hand. At this time, her name has a negative connotation with the general public while Sanders has the momentum.
However, the race for the Democratic nomination will get much more interesting if Vice President Joe Biden decides last minute to join the race.
Source:
http://time.com/4058075/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-barack-obama/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/01/bernie-sanderss-26-million-cash-haul-is-a-major-problem-for-hillary-clinton/
Through Hillary Clinton’s campaign lapses and e-mail controversy over the past few months, what once seemed like an easy route to the Democratic nomination and even presidency for the former First Lady and Secretary of State is now what could possibly be a wide open democratic race, especially if Joe Biden decides to run. Taking advantage of Hillary’s faults has been Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who has quickly risen in polling numbers and financial support. While Bernie Sanders is still rather far behind Clinton, one interesting area to note is the fact that Sanders is actually ahead of where Barack Obama was at this point in 2007. As we all know, Obama’s late surge on Clinton allowed for his incredible comeback that won him the Democratic nomination and eventual Presidency. As crazy as it sounds, a 74 year old left wing senator from Vermont is one of the most serious and intriguing Presidential candidates for the 2016 race.
Currently, despite his rise in support Sanders has actually not had much press coverage compared to the other candidates. Much of the press coverage has focused on the Republican side, mostly due to candidate Donald Trump. But, you have to remember that the election is still over a year from now, so as we get closer to the election the coverage on the Democratic side is sure to increase. I think once this happens, Bernie can really begin his push to the top of the polls as more of America gets to know this candidate. I really do not think he has to do much differently if he wants to pass Hillary, he comes off as the more relatable and “common man” candidate when compared to his counterpart which will help him. The only area where he should change is as said above by YourPal in becoming more moderate with his ideas, because although it is possible for him to win the Democratic nomination being so far left, it is incredibly difficult to win the actual Presidential nomination being either so far left or right wing, many candidates vote for the more moderate option. Success does not correlate to increased funding, just ask Jeb Bush. But, with that said having the funding does ensure that Bernie Sanders will not have to drop out of the race or fall behind due to a lack of campaigning. To stay ahead, Hillary has to show damage control, and take the accusations seriously by apologizing. Then, she has to show why the American people's best interests are in her hands which she can do by trying to be more relatable and not seem so scripted all the time.
Sources:
http://i.imgur.com/DZFHGZN.png
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/01/its-time-to-treat-bernie-sanders-like-a-real-presidential-candidate/
I have said many times that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are two sides of the same coin. "That's absurd!" you say. "One's a plastic-haired spray-tanned demagogue, and the other is a mild-mannered yet passionate supporter of the youth!" However, both of these candidates are populists. Both represent a discontent with the political status quo. Trump plans to "make America great again" by building walls, deporting immigrants, and declaring economic war on China. While absurd, this willingness to firmly step in and make change in a nation of deadlocked government is very historically significant. Sanders, too, preaches against the influence of money in politics and the supposed falseness of mainstream politicians, with a laundry list of far-left policies at his back.
The difference, however, is context. Sanders entered a race where almost everyone expected Clinton to be the clear victor. Thus, he has no real competitors for the second-place spot (unless Biden shows up), yet it is very difficult for him to lead in the polls even in Vermont. Trump, on the other hand, blasted his way into a Republican primary scattered with many diverse candidates. His determination and boldness attracted many people disappointed with the GOP's performance lately. Public opinion shifted from being dispersed across many, many candidates to being increasingly concentrated on Donald the Demagogue.
Thus, believe it or not, if Sanders wishes to beat Clinton he needs to act more like Trump by appealing to the anti-establishment feeling that many Americans currently feel against their government.
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21661668-vast-crowds-turning-out-bernie-sanders-are-not-all-they-seem-sandernista-revolution
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21663225-why-donald-dangerous-trumps-america
King Pash, I believe there is a lot that needs to be done for both Sanders and Clinton to overcome the Republican candidates this year. Sanders could win the favorability of democrats for the nomination, but he will need to a gain a lot of ground in the polls. To do this, I think he needs to increase the awareness and popularity of his campaign through increased campaigning efforts and on-air time in debates. Since Hillary has been tangled up in a lot of scandal in this penultimate year to the election, Sanders might just have to remain steady to overtake the popular name of Clinton for the democratic nomination. Hillary has a court heating set for February regarding two federal lawsuits for her alleged use of a private email for government affairs, including the attack on Benghazi (NBC). If disaster strikers for Clinton, Sanders could be the most viable democrat remaining. In the mean time, he will need a lot more money to stand a chance against the superpower that is the Clinton name, and he will have to begin fighting for the nonwhite democratic vote, of which Clinton currently has 72% according to a June Washington Post/ABC News Poll (CNBC). I agree with WillyB, who said that Sanders must take a more brash approach to his campaign. Although he is not the "Donald Trump" type by any means, a national splash might be just what he needs to make to have a shot at the presidency.
Sources:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/court-hearings-clinton-email-cases-set-february-n439486
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/what-does-bernie-sanders-need-to-do-to-beat-hillary-commentary.html
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