Just this morning, North Korea announced that they had successfully developed and detonated a hydrogen bomb. The North Korean Government has been pushing for nuclear capabilities for years, and now it claims to have finally reached its goal.
The underground detonation, occurring at 10 a.m. North Korean time, seemed to have caused seismic event with a 5.1 magnitude. According to Nosar, a group based in Norway that monitors nuclear events estimated that a blast of such a seismic reading would be less than that of the A-bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
This detonation, according to the North Korean government, was "a measure for self defense... to protect the sovereignty of the country". In a letter signed by Kim Jong Un himself said that he wanted to "Make the world ... look up to our strong nuclear country and labor party by opening the year with exciting noise of the first hydrogen bomb!"
According to Martin Navias, a military expert at King's College London, the legitimacy of North Korea's claims will remain uncertain for the next few days or weeks. Martin himself doesn't believe that they have created an H-bomb saying "one would have expected it to be greater if it was an H-bomb."
The United Nations have placed multiple sanctions on North Korea in attempts to stop their development of nuclear weapons. Hopefully those sanctions did their job and these claims made by North Korea are not legit.
What do you guys think? If these claims to turn out to be true, what could be the fallout of North Korea's new capabilities? What would be Kim Jong Un's next move? What would be the UN's next move? Should we be worried?
Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/06/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html
10 comments:
As of this point in time, I think it's definitely fair to be a skeptical of the legitimacy of North Korea's Hydrogen-Bomb. While there was in fact a 5.1 magnitude earthquake that appeared to rock the area, radiation sensors as close as in Japan seemed to detect no charges of extra radioactivity from the area. I firmly believe that it is important that the United Nations takes the act seriously. That being said, it seems somewhat doubtful, sanctions and all, that North Korea could have manufactured a weapon of such magnitude, especially without help of China, Russia or India. In terms of overall concern, I don't believe that there is any imminent threat on the United States or any of it's allies. If anything, the alleged testing is most just a statement by the North Koreans. So basically, there is no reason to be worried; at all. Furthermore, The United Nations should not take any drastic measures in it's surveillance of North Korea or move to regard the militaristic and technological capabilities of North Korea in a manner in which the U.N. has not already. For Kim Jong Un, the next move is pretty simple; just keep coming up with ways to annoy powerful western countries and their allies.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/6/north-korea-test-draws-international-condemnation.html
I still remain skeptical about North Korea having successfully developed and tested a hydrogen bomb. However, I can’t argue that the 5.1 magnitude earthquake does not support their claims as it was detected at 9am, just as the first reports of the detonation were released. However the sanctions that were placed on North Korea by the U.N. and the fact that they have no support from the major countries around them it seems doubtful, as King Pash said above, that they could have created such a weapon. Plus, the Korean Meteorological Administration has detected no radiation from the apparent test. I also agree that the U.N. needs to take this seriously and I believe they will. The United States, Britain, Japan, and even China have all already condemned the move. The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the test was a threat to Japanese security and Japan “absolutely cannot tolerate” a North Korean nuclear test. Even China, one of North Korea’s few allies, criticized the test; the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that the government “strongly opposes” the act. Russia’s U.N. spokesperson called for “cool heads” and a “proportionate response,” while Britain's Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond stated that such a test would be a “grave breach” of U.N. resolutions. I think these responses are evidence that the U.N. is not going to take this lightly. I think that the response of Kim Jong Un is very dependant on the U.N.’s actions, however I think that until North Korea faces major push back from China that they will continue to focus on building nuclear weapons. At this point, I agree with King Pash, we don’t need to be worried. The only thing I fear is that this will begin another arms race and the world will once again face something like the Cold War.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/big-earthquake-detected-near-north-korean-nuclear-site-reports.html
If experts are saying that the detonation should be greater to be considered a viable H-bomb, then I think that North Korea may be bluffing. Sanctions have often proved to be somewhat ineffective, but North Korea has made many outlandish, fear-mongering statements about their military power in past. The US' analysis of North Korea seems to--as of right now--not match up with NK's claims. However, it will be weeks before we know for certain if the country's claims were legitimate. That said, it is very likely that North Korea is developing a "boosted" atomic weapon and their development of it is somewhat inevitable, as Kim has boldly stated time and again that he will not give up his development and will not enter talks with the US the same way that Iran did. The crisis (if impending) will be an interesting talking point in the upcoming election, as some candidates have already cited N Korea's research as American weakness, but have offered no solution. If the claims are true, the US and China must be very, very careful with their Korean relationship. Something drastic must change before the isolated dictatorship is ever safe, so until then, we must proceed with caution. If Kim has an H-bomb, he will likely try to force the US, UN, and China to bow to his demands. But, for now, we should not be worried about imminent death as the other two commenters have said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test.html?_r=0
Although no one takes Kim Jong Un seriously we should never underestimate his capabilities, or the capabilities of the North Korean government. I think in a situation like this it is imperative to keep in mind how North Korea functions. They are isolated from the rest of the world, and they strip their citizens of their fundamental human rights. If these threats are in fact true and Kim Jong Un has successfully developed and tested a hydrogen bomb the main concern is to protect the rest of the country. The United Nations should not take direct action but should most certainly compose a plan if this the bomb is actually real. However we do also have to take in for consideration that North Korea could of course be lying. It is hard to believe that they would be that militaristic and technologically advanced. Because of this, I do not believe we should be worried, however it should be protocol to take in for consideration what our next move would be if Kim Jong Un’s announcement is infact true. I think it is also important to follow the actions of China because they are the country’s only real ally. I believe that this should be our main focus because China’s actions will be significantly telling of North Korea’s next move. Trump recently expressed that China should be the only country to deal with North Korea, however I disagree. Trump expressed that "If they don't solve that problem, we should be very tough on them on trade -- meaning, start charging them tax or start cutting them off. You'd have China collapse in about two minutes,". However if we allow China to take control of this situation we are placing the control elsewhere. In this situation the security of our nation and our allies could be in great danger. As Claire said this allows another situation like the Cold War to begin and therefore we cannot stand by and let China take control of an issue this large and significant. I believe we must compromise a plan but no take direct action. We must be prepared, but we also must make sure to not catalyze any more militarily fueled issues.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/07/asia/north-korea-china-nuclear-test/
As all the previous commenters have stated, I am very doubtful of North Korea’s claim of having developed an H-Bomb. We’ve heard many threats and statements from North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, most of which have turned out to be false and or drastically exaggerated. Therefore given the numerous other factors, such as the low magnitude of a 5.1 earthquake and no detection of radioactive substances then I don’t see how this ‘achievement’ is any different from the dramatized stories we’ve heard from North Korea in the past. With that said though, I don’t feel that this statement should be completely ignored by the UN. Given how volatile the world is today, having another unpredictable nation such as North Korea develop a weapon of mass destruction would only help to aggravate the situation. Therefore I feel that the UN should continue on with the handling of North Korea as has been the case, but just keep an eye out for anymore suspicious activity in regards to the development of atomic weapons. At this point in time though, no drastic measures should be taken against them.
I think it is fair to be skeptical of North Korea's capability to produce an H-Bomb and the validity of their claim that they have successfully detonated one. A hydrogen bomb is much more powerful than an atomic bomb, yet Norsar, a Norway-based group that monitors nuclear tests, stated that the seismic reading were smaller than the A-Bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, I think that it is completely possible that they detonated some type of nuclear bomb. Norsar continued that "there's little doubt that North Korea did conduct a new significant nuclear test despite persistent calls not to do so." It's encouraging that one of North Korea's only allies, China, strongly condemned the act. However, I doubt that China has as much of an influence on North Korea as many think and hop, especially since Kim Jong Un is such an erratic and unstable leader. I also am skeptical that UN sanctions will do much considering North Korea is such an isolated nation. I think the main goal of this announcement was to be a fear monger and get a rise out of the West; therefore, I think it's important to not give Kim Jong Un the satisfaction. However, disagreeing with above commenters, it is still important to take this seriously as anything is possible.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/06/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test/index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-claim-reactions.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
I agree with Ally that it is highly unlikely that North Korea successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. It is extremely difficult to trust what they say about their developments in weaponry after they threatened multiple times to use these nuclear bombs when there was no truth to them actually possessing them. In addition, It is very possible that they have successfully developed some form of a nuclear bomb because South Korea reported seismic activity form their buoys around the same time the bomb was claimed to have been launched. All things considered, even if there is doubt that North Korea was successful in creating a nuclear bomb, and Kim Jong Un is telling the truth (highly unlikely). I still believe we need to take caution in approaching this situation and try to find out the truth for ourselves.
New reports are coming out that North Korea didn't actually successfully detonate a hydrogen bomb, and it was most likely just a regular atom bomb. That being said, this should still be taken very seriously and although North Korea is saying it is not developing the weapon to use on a certain country, why should anyone believe Kim Jong Un. I agree with King Pash in the sense that people should not overreact to this event. North Korea has been making these aspirations to successfully make a nuclear bomb since Kim Jong Ill was in power, so it's really no surprise they've finally achieved their goal. I believe that Kim Jong Un's next move will probably be to try and develop a better nuclear bomb, and detonate that as well. Overall however, I don't see him trying to use it on any particular country, given the fact the repercussions of an action such as bombing another country with a nuclear weapon would be unimaginable. The UN called an emergency meeting recently to discuss what to do with North Korea, and I believe that they will keep a very close eye on North Korea's next move, making sure that things do not get too out of control. As for the American people, I do not believe we should worried in anyway. I hope North Korea knows that if they tried to attack us, it would be the end for them. Our troops would invade and takeover their country within a matter of months, and North Korea would most likely be looked over by the UN with some type of provisional government set in place. I would be very surprised if Kim Jong Un did not take into consideration how powerful the U.S. is compared to North Korea especially with all of our allies.
Honestly, I believe that the claims of North Korea of successfully denoting a hydrogen bomb are completely false since the country made similar claims about nuclear bombs when in the end it turned out to be false. However, we have to be aware and on alert when it comes to a possibility of our country being at risk of being hurt. An analogy that I would use to describe the current situation would be the fairy tale of the boy who cried wolf. In this story, it describes a boy that talks about a boy that decided to play a trick on the towns' people by telling false information about a wolf attacking the flock of sheep. He did this repeatedly to the point where the towns' people became accustomed to his antics. Then one day, there was an actual wolf, but the towns' people didn't believe a word he said. So in the end, there were devastating consequences that were the end result. So, the real question is whether or not to give "the wolf" the attention it deserves?
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