Tonight at 9 pm another Republican debate is taking place, with or without Donald Trump. This will be the last debate before the Iowa caucuses on Monday and there are a lot of things to watch out for.
The first question on everyone’s minds is whether or not Donald Trump can win even if he not present at the debate. His absence may have a negative effect on CNN’s ratings, but it is still unknown whether they will put a dent in his poll numbers. By skipping this debate, Trump is avoiding a potentially damaging debate against his main competitor Sen. Ted Cruz. However Cruz has already started against Trump, saying he is too fragile and is scared of Megyn Kelly. Since he will not be there to defend himself this debate could be the time for some of his competitors to step up to the plate, or podium in this case. Trump’s absence could also either be a blessing or a curse for Ted Cruz. On one hand, now Cruz will have a chance to shine and really grab the attention of voters; plus he hopefully won’t be hounded about Canada. However, without Trump he the highest in the polls (some polls have put him up by 5%). Thus he could be the target of cross-fire in this debate, especially from Sen. Rand Paul who has been calling him a flip-flopper on immigration.
This debate may be the first Republican debate this campaign season that focuses more on actual politics than on mocking (or bullying Jeb Bush). Hopefully it is more civilized as it will be focusing on big, policy-heavy questions such as the war on ISIS and tax policy. On the other hand without Trump in the picture, the candidates might take this opportunity to show their tough side. Such as Gov. Chris Christie, a loud and straight talker, who has been stuck in Trump’s shadow. However former Gov. Jeb Bush warns his fellow candidates to not suddenly tough in Trump’s absence saying, “They’ve all been kind of polite and scared of him, I guess. Now that he’s not there they might pile, which I think will look weird.” This is very hypocritical of Jeb Bush, who has been relentlessly attack Marco Rubio on everything, even his choice of footwear.
Another person of consideration in this debate is Bernie Sanders who has been gaining momentum and recently spoke at the White House. With his numbers so close with Hillary Clinton, who has been receiving the brunt of Republican attacks, it may be Sanders turn to face the heat on the Republican floor. Whether or not the address Bernie Sanders will be a sign about how seriously they take his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee.
How do you feel about Trump putting personal hostilities ahead of the democratic process? What effects do you think his absence will have on his poll numbers and on the debate in general? Who do you think will be the most outspoken? Who do you think will win?
What other predictions do have for the debate tonight? If you are responding after watching the debate did anything above happen? Did anything surprise you?
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/01/28/fox-news-republican-debate-four-things-to-keep-your-eye-on.html
6 comments:
I think that it would show an ignorance of Trump's campaign to think that not attending will effect his standings in the polls. A campaign based on inflammatory comments, boastful attitudes, and going against the grain has garnered him increasingly more support over the past year. Unfortunately, this debate definitely will not change that. The voterbase that Trump has created nationwide is strong and proud; it is doubtful that the "intelligent" conversation held during a debate will do much to change their minds in the slightest. In fact, this decision by Trump only further cemented him as the anti-establishment GOP candidate, an increasingly popular position, especially among rural whites.
I agree with Justin that Trump's absence at tonight's debate will have little to no effect on his poll numbers. The debate began 30 minutes ago and I am surprised that he hasn't sent out an inflammatory tweet yet. This decision may even improve his numbers. Many voters see the debates as petty and only as entertainment. Instead of Trump appearing on this form of entertainment, it is no coincidence that he will be at his own rally in another part of Des Moines to honor veterans. This is likely an attempt to paint him as a figure who cares more about the people than the publicity and drama of debates. I hope that Fox will take the opportunity of Trump not being present to address the issues rather than invite entertaining attacks on the absent Trump. However, I doubt this considering that the first question was essentially an opportunity for Ted Cruz to launch an attack on Donald Trump which he did. I still doubt that the quality of the debate will increase due to the quality of candidates participating. As I'm watching now, Cruz is fighting with the moderator about the rules of the debate. This ridiculousness epitomizes these debates. I really hope this debate doesn't improve Cruz's numbers with Trump's absence. I digress but he is completely unfit for the presidency. In discussing if he would carpet-bomb Raqqa, which is a violation of international humanitarian law, he answered yes and then continued to describe as the opposite of carpet bombing. How can someone who doesn't even know the correct terminology have the responsibility of making these decisions? Cruz is going to try to take this opportunity to seize the attention of some Trump supporters as will others. I'm excited to see how this debate will progress.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-debate-seven-candidates-against-the-man-who-isnt-there/2016/01/28/2598ab2a-c5dd-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/dec/16/ted-cruz/ted-cruz-misfires-definition-carpet-bombing-gop-de/
Claire,
I think that this action is pretty indicative of Trump's campaign -- mercurial, nonsensical, and kind of immature. The Trumpers can't seem to get enough, but he's going to need some other voters to support him in order to win the general election. Those voters, in turn, might feel as though Trump is being too petty to inform them. With all that being said, he's already installed in this race, and will likely be one of the names, if not "the" name until the last day. If his poll numbers dip at all, it shouldn't be anything that will take him out of the race. The Iowa voters, specifically, might feel betrayed, and he could give way to Cruz in the impending Caucus.
With the debate specifically, I think the ratings will definitely take a hit. Trump is the character people are tuning in to see. His campaign so far can be summed up as a clown car - once you think you've seen it all, another sideshow act pops out of no where. If he's too scared to confront the lovely, talented Megyn Kelly, how will be confront Putin? Jong-Un? The short answer is he won't, and there are plenty of holes in his bravado. All in all, this latest ridiculous act hurts the GOP, but again helps the DNC.
I agree 100% with Stephen on this because trump is always trying to find new ways to spark controversy and differ himself from the rest of the GOP. This latest stunt shows that he has no respect for the election process and that he is above its traditions and everyone involved. A few days ago Trump said he could shoot someone times square and not lose any votes. This is him saying that he can do whatever he wants and he will stat maintain the trust of his supporters. I can't tell who is crazier, the people who support trump through these comments and actions or trump himself. On the news when trump supporters are interviewed, many of them say that trump is not afraid to speak his mind and says the things that they won't. One women said that she can't say the things she want because they are " inhumane and politically incorrect." Obviously trump has been successful in hypnotizing and captivating the minds of people in out country and his constant separation from popular idealism has gained him more support. This isn't trumps first stunt and sure won't be his last. You can expect more outrageous individual acts from trump before the campaign process is over.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/
I agree with Stephen and Brodi that Trump is using his usual antics of attention seeking and causing turmoil. He is interested only in creating a news headline and not actually dealing with politics. It is a ridiculous idea that just because you don't like the moderator you cannot show up for the debate, especially if you are running for President of the United States and are going to have to deal with all sorts of people you don't like. However, something I found interesting was that the Iowa governor appeared at a breakfast following the debate and rather than criticizing Trump, said that " I'll never forget the Iowa State Fair when he's giving rides in his helicopter." Additionally, an Iowa senator came to a Trump rally just last week which suggests that the Iowa voters may lean towards Trump as political leaders are beginning to support him. The debate revealed that even without Trump there Cruz was still heavily attacked by questions from the moderator which upset Cruz. He even threatened to leave the stage if another one was asked. However, Bush took a bit of a stronger stance than seen in past debates without Trump there to bully him. Marco Rubio lacked the vigor and energy that some were hoping he would reveal in this debate after hiding in the shadows for. Overall, the Trump's disappearance seemed to take some of the entertainment out of the debate. Even more so, it actually appeared to have helped his campaign as he stood smiling next to veterans and wounded warriors.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/28/iowas-republican-governor-warms-even-more-to-donald-trump/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/gop-presidential-debate-takeaways-218393
I do not respect Trump's decision to not attend the debate. I agree with Gwen that Trump is only doing the to once again drum up attention and create controversy in the race. Despite the fact that Trump will not be attending the debate, he will still be casting a shadow over the entire event. People while remember this debate as "the one Trump did not attend" rather than by the actual contents of the event. Although I am excited to here them discuss actual policy, I feel that many of what they concentrate on will be that Trump in fact is not there. As Brodi said, Trump is showing no respect for the election process, and it astounds me that this is not reflected in the polls regarding his support. However, at this point, I believe that there isn't much that could deter his voters. If they have stuck with him thus far, I doubt that the lack of appearance at one debate will change their mind about voting for him. This is a scary reality, but one that we must accept.
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