The New Hampshire is also complicated because of the heroin addiction problems that have come to plague the state. Heroin related deaths have increased 22% since the last year and it is a topic on everyone's mind. This will have an interesting affect on how voters as some feel that Sanders is the best choice to help with this problem but others are concerned with big government's involvement in the healthcare system.
Another twist to the electorate is the increasing number of older people and out migration of the young. Part of this is driven by the fact that University of New Hampshire has the highest in state tuition for any in state university and many college aged students are moving out to places with better financial aid and lower costs. This helps the Sanders campaign but is a smaller part of the electorate and therefore unlikely to be enough for guaranteed success in the primaries.
Currently, polls show Sanders far ahead in the lead as this state is near this Vermont senator's home state and Trump with percentages far above his competitors, but are these indicative of the future presidential primaries? How much will the issue of the economy dominate voting? Will the serious heroin problem that has come to dominate political conversations in the state weigh in on the primaries? New Hampshire primaries are known for their unexpected twists, do you predict any darkhorse candidates?
I believe that Sanders will almost certainly win as he is familiar with the people, but I do not believe that this is a good indicator of the future. Trump is less of a sure thing as his supporters are not always reliable and he seems to be losing momentum.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/04/us/in-new-hampshire-an-anxious-political-landscape-as-voting-nears.html?ref=politics
http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/02/new-hampshire-things-to-know
8 comments:
Right now Trump is reeling from his defeat in Iowa. He has even begun to claim that Cruz “stole” the election and wants a redo or for Cruz’s votes to be nullified. I think these are the actions of a very worried man and this fear is reflected in his plan for New Hampshire: there is no such thing as too much campaigning. He is increasing his amount of stops in New Hampshire in order to increase his exposure before Tuesday night. Despite his significant lead over his competitors, I think that the dark house in this election could be Marco Rubio who had a much stronger-than-expected finished in Iowa. As for Democrats, both the Clinton and Sanders campaign have begun to use canvassing tactics in New Hampshire; which is basically going door to door asking people who they support and trying to get them to come out and vote. 60% of the New Hampshire Democratic voters say that they have definitely decided who they are going to vote for and in the latest CNN poll Sanders leads Clinton by 23 points. Overall I think Sanders has a very good opportunity in New Hampshire, but on the other hand I think anything could happen regarding the Republican nominee.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/donald-trump-new-hampshire-2016/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-primary-2016-clinton-sanders-canvass/index.html
With Iowa behind us I feel that we may start to see the ripple effects of the outcomes making their way to New Hampshire, specifically in regards to the top three Republican candidates: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. While Trump is currently showing strongly in New Hampshire, with the other candidates trailing far behind in the polls, I feel that within the next week those figures very well may change for the betterment of Rubio, a moderate Republican. Bush, Christie, and Kasich, all viewed of as the moderates in the Republican field have been holding out for New Hampshire, where there is a very influential bloc of independents and moderate Republicans. Therefore I see this primary as helping to continue Rubio's momentum, while potentially pushing candidates like Christie and Kasich (who are running out of money) towards backing out of the race if they are unable to have a strong showing in the state. On the Democratic front however I don't think that there will be any surprising results, with Bernie Sanders comfortably winning the state (although it will be interesting to see if his success will translate to other states where Hilary is in the lead). Additionally having watched the town hall meeting in New Hampshire with the Democratic candidates last night, the issue of heroin usage was brought up and as Gwen pointed out, Bernie Sanders, strongly stated his desire to rectify this terrible problem. Therefore I feel that those, specifically people 35 and younger, whom are most effected by this problem, will strongly consider what stance candidates have taken on the issue. That said, many young people don't go out to vote, especially in primaries, therefore the issue may not be as influential in people's decisions.
While these initial caucuses and primaries certainly are starting to paint a clearer picture of who the potential general election candidates might be, I agree with Gwen, in that these results aren't one hundred percent indicative of the future. These are only two stares out of fifty, and are certainly not representative of the entire nation. Although, their outcomes help to solidify people's support and as we've already started to see, thin out the crowded Republican group. Overall though it is important for the candidates to keep up the fight and make sure that they receive strong showings early on, due to the idea of 'jumping on the band wagon', with people potentially siding with the candidate that they think will win, as opposed to who may be best suited for the job.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/us/new-hampshire-primary.html?_r=0
New Hampshire is a completely different world from Iowa. The candidates who had the most success on the Republican side in Iowa were, of course, Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. However, this was in a state where a major number of voters are older, white evangelist Christians. In New Hampshire, the same three men (particularly Trump and Cruz) cannot expect to have the same positive results. In fact, they should expect to end up towards the bottom.
I agree with Amanda that moderate Republican candidates like Bush, Christie, and Kasich have a better chance in New Hampshire, where the majority seems to be left-of-center. I disagree with one statement of Amanda's, though, which is that Rubio is "a moderate Republican." Of course, this is a popular belief held by many Americans; however, I don't think that he is moderate at all. He has pledged to roll back marriage equality, he doesn't believe in global warming, he is strongly pro-choice, and he doesn't support full health benefits for women in the workplace (Lerner). However, I digress! I just wanted to clarify my opinion on this. Still, I predict that Rubio will have increasing success among the population of Americans who are under the impression that he is a moderate Republican.
As for the Democratic side, I think that Sanders will do better in New Hampshire than Clinton. According to New Hampshire polls, 55.2% of Democrats support Sanders, while only 37.6% support Clinton (NY Times). If the NH primary is any reflection of this, Sanders should win by a fairly significant margin. However, after it was so close in Iowa, who's to say what happens.
Source: http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/02/02/3745336/rubio-not-moderate/
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html?_r=0
I don't think any "dark horses" are going to show up in the New Hampshire Primary, as it seems pretty obvious that Sanders is going to be the most successful in his own backyard. The people know Sanders better than the other candidates because he is their neighbor. It's like how we people from Connecticut would trust a well known governor from New York better than a bureaucrat from DC that doesn't represent our interests. What other candidate is more knowledgeable of the interests of the state of New Hampshire than the Senator of their sister state, Vermont? But even when Bernie wins the primary in New Hampshire, it will definitely not reflect how the rest of the primary season will play out. Who wins the nominations for either party is for time to tell.
A University of Massachusetts poll shows that Trump has a 20-point lead over Rubio and even more over other candidates in New Hampshire. I do think it possible that he will win there. However, since the Iowa caucus, there has been shifts in opinions of voters and things can change between now and Tuesday. In Iowa, we saw an 8-point jump for Rubio and I feel that he is only starting to gain momentum for voters. Also, candidates like Christie, Kasich and Bush have started to attack Rubio; this sort of behavior shows their fear of his rising popularity. I still feel that in the long run, the prevailing Republican candidate will not be Trump because I feel that other Republican candidates will drop out of the race after New Hampshire and back one of the frontrunners. I do think that Christie and Bush will have a better showing in New Hampshire compared to Iowa, but I do not think that they have a chance of winning.
As for the Democrats, I think that Bernie will win this one. According to a University of New Hampshire poll, Sanders stands at 61% and Hillary only stands at 30%. I do not think that Hillary could gain that much support to win New Hampshire.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/some-new-hampshire-voters-question-donald-trumps-latest-moves-1454632953
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-hampshire-primary-becomes-must-win-for-several-republicans-1454549329
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/
Based on polling, I think that Kasich will surprise everybody with his polling in New Hampshire. Following him on social media, I know that he has spent at least a month straight in New Hampshire just getting newspaper endorsements, making speeches, and meeting people one on one. Whether his relative success in New Hampshire will translate to future success is still to be known, but based on his poor performance in Iowa, I doubt it. In the Democratic camp, Sanders currently has an outstanding 30-point lead, definitely aided by Hew Hampshire's proximity to his home state of Vermont. I do believe that if he does not keep this lead, though, that Hillary will declare herself the victor a-la Bill Clinton declaring that he won despite a second place finish.
I agree with Claire that Trump is very worried about his future in the elections because he was not expecting to lose in Iowa. His voting base is very unreliable, which is an addition to all the things he has to worry about. Trump is quickly losing momentum, which is an ominous sign for his political future. I would not count on a Trump victory in New Hampshire, and I think either Rubio or Cruz will have very good chances there.
In terms of Bernie Sanders, I agree with Gwen that he will win New Hampshire. He is very familiar with the people -- as he is the Senator of the state next door, -- he is a good candidate to handle the worsening heroin addiction problem, and he would also be great for dealing with issues having to do with the very low minimum wage.
With that being said, I do not think that the turnout in New Hampshire will necessarily match that of future primaries. New Hampshire has a few very unique issues that need to be handled, which is why I think that the primaries will turn out with Bernie Sanders winning for the Democrats.
I agree that Sanders will do well in New Hampshire. The fact that he almost tied Clinton in Iowa, who was projected ti gave a huge lead, shows a lot about his campaign. It also gives him some good momentum, and the fact that New Hampshire is so close to Vermont allowing the people to know about him helps. I think Clinton needs to be worried about Bernie and the success he'll see in the future. As for the Republicans, I think that Trump should be worried about his campaign,as he has been the front runner for a while, and people thought he would be an easy win, but to lose the first caucus does not reflect well for his chances. Sure, it changes from state to state as you get different voters, but he will need to act fast if he wants to have a chance of winning this election. I wouldn't be shocked if some of the other more obscure candidates make an appearance of some sorts in the next caucus.
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