As good as Nevada was for Trump, it was a huge loss for Cruz. Demographically speaking, Cruz should be carrying the evangelical vote. However, in Nevada Trump won 41% of voters and Cruz won only 28%. Furthermore, this is the second state in a row that he has come in third behind Rubio, albeit it has been close in both. Cruz and Rubio both had rallying cries after the caucuses of future victories. Both candidates attacked each other, with Rubio commenting on Cruz's lies and dirty politics. Interestingly, Trump was left generally untouched by critical comments and Republican donors have yet to come out with strong opinions against his campaign.
Although Nevada was a big win for Trump, it does not guarantee him success in the future. In Utah, he polls at only 18%, but he's winning at 50% in Massachusetts. It is still early in the race, but the fast approaching Super Tuesday on March 1st, where eleven states will hold primaries, will begin to solidify who is truly the most likely Republican nominee. That being said, no candidate has won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries for the Republicans and not gone on to be the nominee since 1980.
Does Trump have enough momentum to win him the nomination? Will negative comments from Republican donors emerge and put an end to his winning streak? What does his winning the evangelical and Hispanic vote indicate about his campaign? Is Trump unstoppable?
I personally believe that it is still early in the race and Trump is far from having enough delegates to win the nomination. Demographics change from state to state and exit polls are not necessarily reliable. Simultaneously, if Cruz were to drop out I believe that many of his evangelical voters would coalesce behind Trump. Trump is no longer a joke of a candidate, that's for sure.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nevada-caucus-results-donald-trump-2016-republican-primary/
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/big-2016-story-out-nevada-gop-caucus-turnout-n524951
8 comments:
I wouldn't be too surprised that Trump won over Hispanic votes. In fact, when Trump first announced his intent to build a wall and deport all illegal Mexican immigrants, my Cuban grandparents looked up from their rice and beans at the Fox News broadcast and nodded in agreement. I wouldn't go so far as to call it xenophobia, but many Americans feel that there should be zero tolerance for illegal immigrants, including many Hispanics.
We should remember that not all Hispanics are Mexican, not all illegal immigrants are Mexican, and not all Mexicans are illegal immigrants. So I wouldn't be too surprised that Trump won the Latino vote.
That is, in the absence of Marco Rubio. I would have assumed he would do better, given his role as the fresh, young, Hispanic face of the new Republican Party. However, Trump, who frequently styles himself as separate from "The Republicans," seemed to have degraded the establishment to the point of ending even that.
I agree with Will, I think Trump may have a chance at taking the hispanic vote. Trump has made extreme claims regarding immigration, yet that is what a lot of people want. Also, he is not posing issues on the legal ones, he just wants to be very strict with illegal immigrants.
However, interestingly enough, I no longer think that Trump is a joke candidate. After listening to the news I think that Trump actually knows exactly what he is doing. He right now is riling up the extreme republicans which may or may not help him win the primary. Now, once primary season passes, if he gets the nomination, it will be interesting to see weather or not he wins mellows down and becomes more moderate in order to win the general election.
I do not think that the Nevada Caucus has any real implications, it may give him momentum but it is simply to early to tell if he will be the winner of the party nomination.
I am going to agree with both Willy and Katie, in that Trump does in fact have a chance at winning the Latino vote. I think a really good point that was made, was that fact that not all Latinos are Mexican and that not all Mexicans are illegal immigrants either. Even for many sane individuals, deporting illegal immigrants is a favourable policy; after all, illegal immigrants are in the country 'illegally' and were never formally allowed into the United States. However, to say that all immigrants that arrived illegally are criminals and rapists is an uneducated, and somewhat xenophobic, statement. While I believe that dealing with illegal immigrants should be a serious concern for the President, kicking all of them out of the country is not necessarily the correct way to go about.
If Trump continues to steamroll in all of the primaries and caucuses, causing either Rubio or Cruz to drop out, there is no doubt that Trump would take a large sum of the Latino votes from either of the Latino candidates. Additionally, even though Trump does not really market himself as a strong evangelical candidate, he is certainly evangelical enough to carry hardcore Cruz supporters.
Even with this Trump is definitely not 'unstoppable'. Even though he has a lot of early momentum, which we all know is pivotal in gaining traction throughout the entire campaign, if Trump isn't overtaken by the time the GOP nominates its candidate, he will almost certainly be defeated in the national election, especially if former New York City Governor Michael Bloomberg runs as a 3rd party candidate. Thus, I basically believe that Trump has no way of actually winning the presidential race.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/2/24/trump-tops-nevada-gop-presidential-caucuses.html
As much as I hate to admit it, I am starting to believe that Trump does in fact have enough momentum to win him the Republican nomination. Even if Republican donors negatively comment about Trump, I don’t think there is much that can break his momentum—evident through his winning of so many evangelical and Hispanic votes in Nevada. In fact, polls show that Trump is even leading in Florida, Marco Rubio’s home state. According to Quinnipiac University poll of Florida Republicans released Thursday, 44% plan to vote for Trump and 28% for Rubio. Rubio has yet to win a state after second-place finishes in South Carolina and Nevada, and really needs to win in Florida since it holds a winner-take-all contest, helping him gain momentum and much-needed delegates into his campaign. But now, it’s unclear whether that will happen for him. The fact that Trump is continually winning over other candidates’ demographics shows just how many people support him. He is leading in almost all 11 states that are voting on Super Tuesday, when more convention delegates will be awarded than on any other primary day. Though polls aren’t always true, there is no doubt that many out there want Trump to win. Though Trump was slow to start, there is no stopping him now.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/02/25/poll-donald-trump-has-big-lead-in-florida-marco-rubios-home-state/
Even though Trump is leading right now with 81 delegates compared to Cruz and Rubio's 17 each, this primary season is far from over. I am not as sure as my classmates that Trump has a chance at winning the Latino vote, especially in a general election. Only 36% of Latinos are Republican, while 62% are Democrats. Also, the Pope recently spoke out against Trump which is significant considering 57% of Hispanics are Catholic and will likely be influenced by his words. Trump is claiming to be "No. 1 with Hispanics" but this is based on exit poll data. 8% of the 1,357 voters polled were Latinos. This means Trump's statement was based on the votes of just 125 registered Hispanic Republicans. The data and the headlines show how numbers can be twisted to make things seem like a bigger deal than they really are. I honestly think it's too early to call anything, but I agree that Trump is definitely not a joke anymore and hasn't been for quite some time. He certainly has some momentum now but when he gets to the more moderate states, it will be interesting to see how he performs.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/politics/donald-trump-hispanic-latino-voters/
I agree with Gwen in saying that Trump is, unfortunately, no longer a candidate to joke about. I do not think he is unstoppable but he is definitely a dangerous competitor. Since 1980 every Republican candidate who has won New Hampshire and South Carolina has gone on to win the nomination. While Trump has won these two primaries, I still think that Cruz or Rubio will have a chance if more delegates start going public about their disapproval of Trump. I find it astonishing that Trump won Nevada by so much especially in the Hispanic and evangelical demographics. This speaks volumes to how widespread his campaign is and also the extent to which American's want change. The main factor that Trump is running off of is the fact that he is not a politician. That he is doing so well shows that American's are over the typical politicians and want fresh faces in government. Although, Trump, in my opinion, should not be the fresh face to turn to. If Cruz drops out of the race, however, then there would be more reason to worry because it is likely that many of his evangelical supporters will turn to support Trump. After this upcoming Super Tuesday we will have a better idea of the standings of the candidates and will from there hopefully see more statements coming from the delegates who disapprove of Trump and his platform.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/big-2016-story-out-nevada-gop-caucus-turnout-n524951
I know I'm reiterating what everyone else has already said, but I also believe that Trump certainly has enough momentum to win the nomination. He continues to dominate the polls on both the state and national levels, and Rubio and Cruz simply cannot seem to find enough common ground with one another to carry out a joint attack against Trump. Unless these two candidates can temporarily set aside their differences and go after Trump, there is no way that either of them will ever win the nomination.
Even if they manage to do so, however, I still feel that the chances of Trump NOT being the Republican nominee are very slim. Regardless of how ridiculous some of the things he says are, he only seems to become more and more popular. He has made numerous crude comments about Mexicans, women, and Muslims, and yet it seems that the GOP electorate simply cannot get enough of this fiery rhetoric. Even if Trump were to be criticized by a prominent Republican leader, I doubt that his candidacy would in great danger because he has already demonstrated all that he can get away with. People like this man because of his no-holds-barred attitude and his anti-establishment persona, and as long as he maintains this rage-fueled momentum, I don't see any way that the electorate's opinions could significantly change. Sure, Rubio and Cruz may win a primary here and there, and a high-profile endorsement by a prominent Republican like former president George Bush could have somewhat of an effect on the polls, but it seems increasingly inevitable that Trump will soon hold the title of Republican presidential nominee. Cross your fingers that that doesn't translate into a Trump presidency, however.
I agree with Gwen and Mia when they say that Trump is no longer a candidate to joke about. When he first announced that he would be running for the presidency, most Americans laughed and assumed that he could never win. But now look at us. We are sitting here blogging about whether Trump will win the Republican nomination. As much as it is still early in the election, and I'm not sure where the next primaries will take us, I would not be surprised if Trump won the nomination. He has a lot of momentum right now, which will help him in the primaries to come. Also, I think that his success with Hispanic and Evangelical voters, whom Rubio and Cruz were supposed to get the majority of respectively, demonstrates the depth of Trump's voting base. Overall, he could be a tough competitor to beat for the other candidates.
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