As the unpredictable and volatile nature of this election continues, it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine what will happen next. Especially in the Republican party. Will Trump remain winning or will Cruz power through? Will Kasich’s success in New Hampshire raise his chances? There is really nothing to NOT expect, that is for sure. However polls have suggested that Trump will once again, dominate in the South Carolina Primary. Trump is seen to most likely collate 35 % of Republican Primary voters, while Cruz will hold 19% and Rubio, 15%. Jeb Bush is expected to receive 10% of votes, Ben Carson at 8% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7%. There are many factors to consider with South Carolina and some of these numbers may come as a surprise like Kasich’s low percentage. Reckon his success in New Hampshire it's hard to see that such a drop down is expected. Trump’s recent action between he and the Pope has made him appear as an “unfaithful” Christian to conservative voters so this may perhaps take a toll on his percentages. For myself, and I can imagine for many, it can be difficult to understand Trump’s attraction to so many voters. However South Carolina is home to many Republicans, who certainly see eye-to-eye with Donald Trump, and because of this, his success is still predicted to be likely. This election has been a whirlwind to say the least, and predictions have been slightly mistrusted, however this has allowed the race for the presidency a significantly interesting event to follow.
Do you think these percentages are realistic?
Do you think predictions will become more accurate as the race narrows?
Will Kasich fall behind once again?
Will Trump remain ahead?
What do you predict for South Carolina?
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/politics/south-carolina-gop-polling-snapshot/index.html
2 comments:
My personal prediction is that trump will dominate throughout the south as well as South Carolina. Based on the polling and concentrated amount of republicans in those states, i see no reason that he will not succeed in dominating the states. Voters tend to be extremely conservative throughout the south and this aligns with the republicans party as well as Trumps personal views. With the amount of seemingly unqualified and charismatic candidates, it seems the only option left is Trump.
Tomorrow's the big day! According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Trump is just five points ahead in SC. When juxtaposed with his sixteen point lead a month ago, his position now does not seem nearly as strong. I agree with you, Caroline, that Trump will surely take a hit as a result of being essentially excommunicated by the Pope himself.
I had to disagree with Jack/Steve's implication that Trump is more qualified and charismatic than the other candidates. Though I personally do not support any candidates running for the GOP nomination aside from Kasich, I do not think that Trump is more charismatic/qualified than any of them. In fact, I think he's among the worst in these areas.
As for my predictions on the South Carolina vote, I imagine that Rubio will have a fair amount of success. His rally this morning in Columbia, S.C. drew a crowd of hundreds (Parker/Flegenheimer). Also, though he has shown himself to be a conservative, though slightly more moderate candidate than Cruz and Trump, his campaign has received praise for highlighting diversity. In the words of Trey Gowdy, "You’re going to look at what the new conservative movement looks like — because it looks like a Benetton commercial" (Rucker/Costa). This idea of "new conservatism" may be centrist enough to win the nomination for Rubio... Only time will tell!
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/us/politics/republicans-speed-across-south-carolina-as-race-tightens.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/19/for-rubio-and-his-trio-of-s-c-surrogates-a-benetton-commercial/
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