After the New Hampshire primary results, the once massive Republican pool of candidates is continuing to narrow as Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina have suspended their presidential bids.
Fiorina, who received 1 delegate in Iowa and 0 in New Hampshire, had once deemed herself as the candidate most suited for taking on Hilary Clinton in the general election due to her private-sector resume as a woman. After two strong performances in the debate, she rose in the polls to the top tier; however, this was short-lived. Her downfall began as she faced criticism of her attacks on Planned Parenthood and use of the inaccurate videos as evidence for her argument. While her presidential bid may have come to an end, there is talk that she may still be in the running for the vice presidency, especially due to her willingness to attack Clinton.
After Christie's disappointing finish in New Hampshire, he has also decided to suspend his campaign. This comes as a shock as he was once considered to be a potential front-runner. Even though Christie is no longer in the running for the nomination, he has most certainly left a significant impact on the race. Throughout the campaign, he has been known for his blunt statements and "inability to sugarcoat." Recently, Marco Rubio has seen the brunt of these attacks, calling him the "boy in the bubble" and accusing him of being sheltered by his staff. In the eighth debate, right before the New Hampshire primary, he attacked Rubio as shallow, inexperienced, and "flip-flopping all over the place." He went as far to say, "See Marco, the thing is this. When you're president of the United States, when you're a governor of a state, the memorized 30-second speech where you talk about how great America is at the end of it doesn't solve one problem for one person." Rubio played right into Christie's trap, repeating the same line multiple times throughout the night. In the two days before the primary, Rubio appeared as "lifeless and demoralized." After Rubio's disappointing fifth place finish in New Hampshire, he blamed his lackluster performance in the debate as the source of this result. Even though Christie won't be in the race anymore, his attacks on Rubio which cause his unfortunate showing in New Hampshire may have also cost Rubio his momentum and potentially the nomination.
Despite Carson's poor showing in Iowa, he has decided to continue his campaign, in hopes of winning South Carolina. After the New Hampshire primary he said, "I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race. You know, they're reminding me that I'm here because I responded to their imploring me to get involved. And I respect that and I'm not just going to walk away from the millions of people who are supporting me." Carson downplayed his second to last performance in New Hampshire by saying that he didn't spend nearly as much money there than other candidates did.
I think that it was smart of Fiorina and Christie to drop out now, saving them lots of money while still keeping them in the race for the vice presidency. I'm most definitely surprise that Jim Gilmore has not suspended his campaign considering his last place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Do you think Fiorina and Christie made the right decision? Who will drop out next? Will Ben Carson be as successful as he thinks he will be? Who has the best shot at the vice presidency? Do you think Rubio will be further affected by Christie's attacks and his lackluster performance in New Hampshire?
Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/10/politics/ben-carson-staying-in-race/index.html
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/despite-poor-outcome-christie-dramatically-altered-republican-race-n516151
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/10/politics/chris-christie-2016-election/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/10/politics/carly-fiorina-drops-out-suspends-campaign/
8 comments:
It was very prudent of Christie and Fiorina to drop out at this stage. It was clear that one needs to finish at least in the top five in New Hampshire to consider moving forward with a campaign, and the candidates that failed to do so and continue campaigning are either delusional or remaining for aspirations that do not include winning the presidency. Also, if the Republican party is serious about nominating a candidate that isn't You Know Who, fringe candidates could be strengthening him by remaining in the race. Many experts believe that Trump's support, while solid, has a ceiling. He has a strong third of the electorate now, but that would not win a head-to-head match-up. Candidates that remain to win votes but are not serious contenders for the nomination are simply diluting the non-Trump Republican vote. The more the field narrows, a serious challenger (or maybe two) can challenge Trump in the states he's currently dominating.
Shout out to Jim Gilmore. He secured something like 12 votes in Iowa. Where most men would be defeated he is marching on. Good on him.
Also, Carson is going to remain in the race until he has satisfied his book quota. He cannot seriously think he has a chance in South Carolina; his most recent poll numbers in the state place him no better than fifth, and his debate showings are nonexistent. Marco Rubio showed how important good debating is with his poor finish in New Hampshire, only days after his critical "Obama" meltdown.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
I agree that Fiorina and Christie made the smart choice in deciding to drop out. At a certain point there comes a time when winning simply isn't going to happen, and it would be unwise of them to continue throwing their money, time, and energy into a campaign that simply isn't working out. Therefore it really makes little sense as to why Jim Gilmore would continue on. Although, I don't think it should be too long before he finally drops out of the race for the nomination. Furthermore I don't see Carson getting the results that he is expecting/counting on in South Carolina. Once that primary happens maybe Carson will get the hint and drop out of the race as well. Unfortunately it appears as though at this moment no other candidates will be leaving the race, and as rubytuesday brought up, this will only benefit Trump. With six other candidates still in the race besides Trump they're only serving to split the anti-Trump vote between themselves, allowing for Trump to take the lead. Therefore once more candidates drop out I think we will finally start to see some shifts away from Trump towards a more appropriate Republican candidate.
As for Rubio's lackluster performance I don't see that seriously impacting his campaign. If he is able to pull himself back together and have a strong showing at this weekend's upcoming debate I feel that this incident shouldn't cause him too much of a slow down. Hopefully he has learned from his slip-up and will be better prepared.
I agree that it was definitely time for Christie and Fiorina to drop out of the presidential race. It was clear that they were not getting enough support to continue. I'm very surprised that Jim Gilmore has not dropped out as well after his failure in Iowa, and I don't think there's any way he continues for much longer. This seems to be true for Ben Carson too, whose support is steadily decreasing as time passes. If he does not have success in South Carolina then I believe it is time for him to drop out. I completely agree with rubytuesday's point about the candidates diluting the non-Trump Republican vote. I'm interested to see how the polls change as more candidates drop out, and if Trump really does have a ceiling. This would make a challenger or two a serious threat to Trump. It is looking as if Ted Cruz is going to be that challenger, as Rubio has begun to slip after the recent debate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Though I was surprised at the results of the New Hampshire primary, I do believe that dropping out would save Christie and Fiorina a lot of time, money, and energy. Christie won only 21,000 votes in a state where he spent more time than any other Republican presidential candidate--that's saying something. The national poll results never favored them and the results of the caucus and primary simply confirmed it. As for Carson, I don’t think he will fare well in the future. His polls in South Carolina right now are in fifth, and though he seems confident that he can turn them around, I don’t think he can win there. Carson should definitely drop out of the race if he doesn’t do well in South Carolina. Lastly, I do think Rubio suffered from Christie’s remarks greatly. Without Christie highlighting Rubio's weakness, it's a lot less likely that television networks would have focused on Rubio's repetitiveness or that "Rubio robots" would have followed Rubio around New Hampshire. However, I agree with Amanda in that he still has a chance to redeem himself—Christie’s attack won’t define Rubio unless he lets it like he did in New Hampshire.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/despite-poor-outcome-christie-dramatically-altered-republican-race-n516151
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/10/politics/ben-carson-staying-in-race/index.html
I have to agree with everyone else on this one. Dropping out of the presidential race was absolutely the right choice to make for both Christie and Fiorina. After his 6th place finish in the New Hampshire primary, Chris Christie was unable to prove to the nation that he was a viable candidate. Likewise, Fiorina, gaining only 1 delegate in Iowa and only winning 4% of the vote in New Hampshire, respectively, could essentially write off her chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite her private sector experience, with a rather poor track record at that, Fiorina was never able to gain large amounts of traction in the 2016 race to the White House. Christie, on the other hand, was a more marketable candidate from day one, given his politcal experience. However, like Fiorina, he has a rather lousy track record and simply couldn't appeal to the larger pool of American conservatives. Even after campaigning in the state of New Hampshire for 70 days, a state he was relying on to kick-start his ascension, Christie still only pulled through with 7% of the vote. Strictly based off of the numbers, it is evident that Christie was right to suspend his campaign. As for Ben Carson, I don't see him going far at all within the race, in fact, I believe Carson basically has 0% chance of winning the nomination at this point. In regards to Rubio, I still think he has the potential to lead a successful campaign, despite the attacks from Christie. All Rubio needs to do is keep focus on the campaign trail and work to become a more independently strong speaker and diplomat.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/2/10/christie-expected-to-end-white-house-bid.html
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/2/10/carly-fiorina-ends-2016-presidential-bid.html
I fully agree with Amanda that the candidates whose chances at winning were hopeless were smart to drop out; campaigning is incredibly expensive, and they'll be saving the money, time and efforts of many American people by leaving the race. I must say, I was surprised that Chris Christie finished so poorly in New Hampshire, given that he is from the region (general northeast), and he spent the bulk of his campaigns efforts on the state (Burns/Haberman). However, I can understand why the American people weren't wooed by Christie. At the end of the day, he's a bully. I'm not just saying this-- there are literally videos of him yelling at civilians in the streets (Klein). However, in typical fashion, I digress.
To Brendan's point, Carson has zero shot at placing well in South Carolina. Ben Carson is not even guaranteed to qualify for Saturday night's SC debate, which will be aired on CBS (Doody). He is currently in 6th place, behind Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush (in that order), and CBS has announced that they will only be featuring 6 candidates. He may squeeze in, but we won't know until Friday night when CBS announces their final list.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/us/politics/chris-christie.html?_r=0
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/01/08/chris-christies-problem-is-that-hes-really-truly-a-bully/
Source: http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/which-candidates-will-be-in-the-greenville-south-carolina-gop-republican-cbs-debate-carson/
As everyone has said, I believe that it was very wise of Fiorina and Christie to drop out of the race. Fiorina was polling so poorly that she was not even invited to participate in the last GOP debate, and Christie's status as a moderate, establishment Republican was not appealing to conservatives around the country.
I believe that Ben Carson will be the next major Republican candidate to drop out, since he is not polling nearly as well as his fellow GOP candidates in South Carolina (I don't even consider Gilmore to be a legitimate candidate, so I'm just going to ignore him). Although Carson holds many of the same policy views as candidates like Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, his soft-spoken personality lacks any trace of charisma. Many conservatives support aggressive candidates like Trump because they are tired of the state of affairs in Washington, and they simply do not regard Carson as a fiery right-wing leader. Thus, I believe he will be the next to go.
Honestly, I doubt that Marco Rubio will be able to bounce back from his poor debate performance. Not only was he made to look like a fool by Christie, but throughout the week he has been criticized by many for his lack of experience. His status as a first term senator gives him an eerie resemblance to Obama in the eyes of many conservatives, and the fact that he co-sponsored an immigration bill does not exactly help his reputation. It is interesting how Rubio was once regarded as one of the most electable GOP candidates, but over the past few days the flaws in his record have truly come back to bite him in the bud. People are starting to realize that he simply does not have the experience needed to run the most powerful nation on Earth, and so I believe that his days in the Republican race are numbered; it may be a while before he drops out, but rest assured, it will happen. I do think that he may be a candidate for vice presidency, however, given his energetic personality and strong conservative principles.
Source:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-clinton-leading-polls-primary-s-article-1.2527247
Ally make's a good point that Christie and Fiorina saved themselves hundreds of thousands of dollars by suspending their campaigns for the presidency. Furthermore, Fiorina is a strong bid for vice presidency as she may pull in female voters to the largely male Republican party and is a strong combatant against Clinton. In terms of who will drop out next, I see Kasich as a possibility. Although he did well in New Hampshire, I do not see him as having the momentum him to carry into future primaries throughout the country and is unlikely to see the same success repeated. However, Carson may also drop out as his poll numbers have been continually falling and the front runners of Cruz, Bush, Rubio, and Trump are beginning to form, leaving him as a straggler in the back. Carson seems a tad over confident in his beliefs but if he wishes to waste millions of dollars on a campaign that will almost certainly never come to fruition and is completely futile, that's his business. Rubio may have been hurt by his debate performance, but one debate is not necessarily enough to cause a candidate to lose all of their momentum and be forced out of the race. Rather, it is how Rubio decides to react to the failure at the debate, and how the future primaries end up, that will influence his future success in the presidential race. The debate can easily be forgotten in a matter of time, until the next gaffe from a candidate comes along, but a problem could be continued criticism from Christie and media coverage that picks apart Rubio and focuses on his problems that reflect back on what happened at the debate. As the field of candidates is becoming smaller and smaller and those who are not able to combat the media and negative commentary will be forced to drop out in no time at all.
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