As we head into the South Carolina primary, Hillary Clinton is doing whatever it takes to win over African American voters in the state. Just yesterday, she released the campaign ad above, which condemns a flawed criminal justice system for being prejudiced against Black Americans.
Potential criminal justice reforms and community outreach have dominated Clinton's campaign so far. However, she is very general and does not offer any examples of how exactly she plans to make the improvements she is always discussing. I worry that she may be all talk and no action, and I would not be surprised if African American voters feel the same way.
It is no secret that Bernie Sanders has been dominating the demographics Hillary once appealed to. Young voters are leaning toward Sanders now more than ever, and this is clearly worrying Hillary. As a result, she is campaigning directly to minority groups in hopes that she can count on their votes. After she lost nearly every demographic group in New Hampshire, she is feeling the repercussions of the bern now more than ever.
How do you think that things will play out in the SC Democratic primary? Do you think that Hillary Clinton will be successful in winning the majority of the Black vote? How do you think Bernie Sanders will fare in the South? Could his status as a self-proclaimed socialist hinder his success in South Carolina? How about his religion? Only time will tell...
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/politics/hillary-clinton-criminal-justice-ad.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2Felection-2016&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/bernie-sanders-intrigues-a-south-carolina-town-that-loves-hillary-clinton.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2Felection-2016&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=collection
7 comments:
Honestly, it makes no difference if Bernie comes even close to winning South Carolina. Bernie could win every early state, maybe he could even win the popular vote. But Hillary maintains strong superdelegate support and in a primary like this, where the margins are so small in each state, if you win the majority of the superdelegates you win the whole primary. That is, of course, with the assumption that the margins will be small. In South Carolina, as the articles implies, Hillary is very established with the young black vote and South Carolina represents that vote. In general, Hillary is a more accessible candidate to the average democrat. It is hard to look past the simultaneously youthful and New England mindset that Bernie Sanders appeals to. We must also realize that the political establishment is legitimately scared of Bernie as they are of Trump and will use superdelegates to fight against them.
Hillary is heavily favored to win the black vote, because of the focus of her campaign towards African Americans. As Hannah has said, Sanders has succeeded with the young people’s vote and I think that he will continue to win among young people. In South Carolina, with African Americans, Clinton is traditionally favorable, but according to the New York Times, there is a growing awareness of Bernie Sanders. Due to a poll taken last month, among African American voters, Hillary won against Bernie Sanders 74% to 17%. This margin may decrease with the increasing interest of young voters in Bernie Sanders, but I still think that Clinton will win South Carolina. Black voters have said that they remember Bill Clinton’s presidency with prosperity and racial unity. They are hoping that Hillary’s potential presidency will be a continuation of Bill’s success.
Also, As 2CHAINZ says, it does nor really matter how many early states Bernie wins because Hillary does have many more super delegates than he does. She will most likely win the nomination.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/bernie-sanders-intrigues-a-south-carolina-town-that-loves-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466356888/in-south-carolina-young-black-voters-could-put-holes-in-clintons-firewall
I agree with Athena that Clinton is likely to win in South Carolina despite Sanders' gaining popularity. Sanders did extremely well in New Hampshire but he has a lot of advantage over Clinton because the majority of the voters he was facing were white students. However, in South Carolina Hillary has an advantage with African Americans and the lower income voters. Additionally, Sanders being a socialist appeals to the most liberal of voters while Hillary may attract more of the moderates. This is important to note because a large portion of the South is conservative and those who are liberal tend not to be of the extent of those in the North. In the current polls Clinton is leading Sanders by thirty percent in the South Carolina forecast. Additionally, what would prevent Sanders from taking the African American votes from Clinton in the South would be the fact that Obama's current job approval rating among African Americans is ninety percent, and in the debate Thursday Sanders came out as very critical of President Obama. These statements are likely to make the African America voters leery of voting for Bernie and secure Clinton’s lead.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-gets-harder-from-here-for-bernie-sanders/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/bernie-sanders-intrigues-a-south-carolina-town-that-loves-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
I agree with both Athena and Mia. Although Sanders has momentum following his New Hampshire win, he mostly appeals to the younger generations and the Northern Democrats. I believe that Clinton has the edge with the Southern democrats, and it has been shown that the Clintons always perform extremely well with minorities. Therefore, I believe she will carry the African American vote in South Carolina. Also, I know that many believe that Bernie now has a real chance at the nomination, however, I find that highly unlikely. Despite his slim win in New Hampshire, Clinton has still won the most delegates in both states due to her super delegate count. Therefore, she is still winning. This is probably best for the democratic party, because I doubt that a self declared socialist could win a general election. Therefore, if they want to have a democrat in office, having Clinton as their nominee would make the most sense. Despite this, people still root for Sanders as they want change. It will be interesting to see if he can gain more states, however, I doubt this will happen in the South.
It is evident that Bernie’s run for the democratic nomination that is filled with optimistic electricity and his ability to captivate the youth has made Hillary out to be a rather vague candidate. This is quite an achievement on his part, however Hillary needs to recover quickly in order to save her candidacy. Hillary’s launch of the video that that condemns the discrimination and prejudice justice system in our country may do just the job she needs to regain momentum. Hopefully for Hillary this video will capture black audiences in South Carolina and throughout the rest of the country because she needs these votes to maintain her run for the democratic nomination. Personally, I see success for Hillary in South Carolina. I don’t believe Bernie’s “democratic socialism” views will attract many voters in the south due to known conservative and traditional values. So to answer Hannah’s question if Bernie’s self proclaimed status as a democratic socialist will hinder his success, I think it certainly will. Hillary has history, she follows tradition, and she has just recently raised awareness to protect the black community against prejudice by the police. Whereas Bernie represents more modern views which are less likely to be positively received by South Carolina, or really any region of the south. But as we have seen throughout this election, anything can happen and because of this I have lost faith in my own predictions because this election has proved to expect the unexpected.
Specifically focusing on the black vote, I think it is very unlikely that Sanders will secure their support in South Carolina. Though things can change, and many of his supporters will say otherwise, Sanders has had rough relations with black advocacy groups. A representative of Black Lives Matter, if you remember, cut him off at a rally in August. Many of these groups believe his experience in a mostly white, insular state make him out of touch with African Americans. The poll numbers reflect this, as while Sanders is popular with affluent white liberals Clinton has the lead among black voters.
As for her campaign video, it's not really all that fair to accuse any candidate of a lack of specificity when it comes to social issues. Sanders, Cruz, and other candidates have made very clear their plans for taxes and healthcare, but social issues are more nebulous and idealistic. While in the general election, Clinton will probably need to appear more active to truly cement her support among black Democrats.
However, as always this is a strange election and anything could happen. We may very well see Sanders' relations improve with African Americans, giving him the victory in South Carolina, a state with a substantial minority of black voters.
Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-black-lives-matter_us_55f9ca9ce4b00310edf57b02
I agree with Athena, Katie and Mia's statement that Clinton is likely to win South Carolina despite the fact that Sanders is gaining popularity and did extremely well in the state of New Hampshire. Clinton has been persistent in gaining support from African Americans in South Carolina. I think her video advertisement did a good job of capturing what she believes in and how she wants to help improve the treatment and prejudice against African Americans. Especially in today's society, people have no patience. Everyone is always on the go. Therefore, I strongly believe a video is a great way to capture the attention of Americans and what a candidate stands for in less than a minute! I think social media and the media's portrayal of presidential candidate's will definitely play a large role in this presidential race.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/bernie-sanders-intrigues-a-south-carolina-town-that-loves-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
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