In a brokered or contested convention scenario, if Trump does not secure the 1,237 delegates needed to win the 'ship all on his own, the GOP's assigned delegates will go to a 2nd round of voting at the convention. Essentially, all the committed delegates will be "released" and will be able to vote for whoever they want - maybe even Mitt Romney.
As we know, the GOP is not necessarily fond of Mr. Trump. He couldn't possibly be further from the GOP establishment, and one would be hard pressed to consider him to be a true Republican. If you go off of that thinking, Kasich wouldn't be a long shot in a brokered scenario. In fact, some might even think he's a potential favorite over the un-presidential Trump, and the all-too-polarizing Cruz. Current convention rules say that a candidate needs to win a majority in eight states during primaries to have a shot at a nomination (Kasich only has Ohio), but the rules might be revised for this zany election (Politico).
Kasich could definitely shine through as the "voice of reason," and it is definitely possible that a Republican establishment man such as himself could edge Hillary. However, it remains to be seen that he will have a shot at the contested convention. In addition to the the potential rules issue addressed above, Trump has said there will be "riots" if he is not the nominee as a result of a brokered convention (CNN), and it can be assumed that he will reign down legal hellfire in this scenario.So, can Kasich somehow be "the guy" for the GOP, or is he dead in the water? Your thoughts on Kasich vs. the GOP leading Cruz & Trump? Do any have a shot at Hillary? What are your thoughts on Trumps comments regarding the brokered convention?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-cruz-kasich-convention-220846
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-brokered-convention/
3 comments:
Kasich is dead in the water. Cruz too. The GOP also, maybe.
They simply cannot ignore the will of the people so blatantly. Trump's primary season has been a veritable blitzkrieg of dominance. As you outlined in your article, Stephen, he's nearly reached the necessary 1,237 delegates required, and nothing short of actual incarceration could slow him down the stretch. In fact, he could go to prison for murdering someone and he would still win most of the remaining delegates. They could have multiple videos, every camera angle imaginable, and incriminate him beyond any reasonable doubt. To go off on a bit of a tangent here, I bet he wouldn't even be convicted. Trump probably only needs to direct veiled threats toward the jury, e.g. he could "make things very difficult for them," and would walk free. Maybe he would invite them to lunch with Ivanka. "Our justice system is fantastic. Really great. Just great." This is how I imagine it happening.
For the GOP establishment to act in such open defiance towards the will of their voting base by staging a brokered convention would be to disenfranchise the party as a whole. They can despise Trump's portion of the electorate in private as much as they would like to, but to openly ignore his right to the nomination could have catastrophic consequences for the stability of the Republican Party. It would revoke their legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Plus, Trump and his army of thugs could make things really, really bad for them. Unless Mitch McConnell wants to be punched out on the steps of the Senate by an unnamed Trumpian patriot or bring the party even greater embarrassment and disarray, he must coalesce the party's support behind Trump.
Although Rubytuesday makes an excellent point that it is not very democratic to blatantly ignore the will of the people, I have to disagree with Kasich being "dead in the water." Although it may seem hopeless due to the mass amount of public support Trump is getting despite his outrageously inappropriate behavior one cannot help but hope that his supporters will realize how unpresidential and disgusting his recent statements have been. Everything out of Trump's mouth are words that, if president, would destroy America. He wants a wall, he wants deportation, he wants riots, violence, lawsuits. His slogan is to "make America great again" but that is impossible when he would be destroying the bases out (already) great nation was built on: immigrants. With this said, people who see these problems with Trump are really starting to speak out against him. SNL all year has been pointing out how ludicrous Trump and his statemetns are. Just earlier this week Brandon Stanton, author/photographer of Humans of New York, wrote an open letter to Trump saying "you are the hateful one" in response to Trumps racist accusations that Muslims and refugees hate America. All this said about Trump, lets now turn to Kasich. Ultimately I don't think any republican will be winning the Presidential election, however of the candiates up for the Republican nominee, I think Kasich still has a good chance. Although he is significantly behind with delegates, as Stephen said, if no one gets the 1,237 delegates the delegates will be free to vote for who they think best as opposed to how the people voted. If this happens I think Kasich will come out on time because Trump is unfit for being President and Cruz is so conservative and right wing he won't appeal to the majority who are moderates. Additionally, Kasich won Ohio. He has done great things as Governor there and though some may think it is a given that he would win his own state, Rubio lost Florida. What's more, the Utah election is coming up (it will actually be today) and Mike Leavitt, former Utah Governor, just endorsed Kasich. Overall I think that although it may not be what the majority of people want, I think Kasich will take the Republican nomination from Trump.
http://kutv.com/news/local/mike-leavitt-endorses-john-kasich-for-president
https://www.facebook.com/humansofnewyork/posts/1207382856002479 (this is the Humans of New York post)
I agree with rubytuesday that Kasich is definitely dead in the water, and pretty much every Republican in the GOP except for Trump. Trump has taken control of the party, and to the majority of the Republicans this election has turned into a nightmare. The Republican party is essentially imploding on itself, since the party is so split on who should be the nominee. Furthermore, the brokered convention proves just how split the Republican party is on what to with this issue, and I think it helps Trump more than anyone. I definitely think Trump has a chance against Hilary, and I also believe people are just as skeptical about Hilary being president as Trump, whoever becomes the nominee whether it's Trump vs. Sanders, or Trump vs. Clinton, the American people need to wake up, and realize that voting is critical in an election where a con-artist has a legitimate chance at becoming the leader of the free world. Overall, it is so concerning that Trump's rallies have continued to become increasingly violent, and while his rallies are becoming more violent, he's also going up in the poll.
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