Trump drew closer to grasping the Republican presidential nomination with his victories in three states Tuesday night.
By winning Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, Trump captured the greatest share of the 150 delegates at stake Tuesday. His mathematical path to a majority of 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination is increasingly brighter than his rivals. He needs about 54 percent of outstanding delegates and his closest rival, Ted Cruz, needs 62 percent.
But Trump gained something even more valuable than delegates on Tuesday, momentum as the race leads up to March 15, when the first states that award delegates winner-take-all hold their primaries. They include Rubio’s home state, Florida, and Kasich’s, Ohio.
“The only person that has a shot of getting 1,237 is us, given how well we did last night,” said Barry Bennett, a senior adviser to Trump, who is closely tracking the delegate race for him. He said “the clock is ticking” on other candidates but “not necessarily on us.”
“After Florida and Ohio,” Mr. Bennett said, “if we win both those states, Cruz will be 300 delegates behind. The winner-take-all states are the rocket fuel.”
Cruz did better than polls predicted in Michigan and Mississippi, and he won a victory in Idaho. He netted an estimated 57 delegates to Mr. Trump’s 71.
But Cruz, who trails Trump in delegates awarded so far by an estimated 462 to 358, is facing a primary map of big states in the North and West that are demographically more favorable to Trump. He seemed to acknowledge the difficulty of overtaking Trump before the convention even if the race becomes the two-man contest he has long sought.
What do you predict will happen between Trump and Rubio?
Who do you believe is the top candidate for the Republican party?
How do you think Rubio will react if Trump wins the nomination as he has lately been bullying Trump?
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/us/politics/donald-trump-delegates.html?ref=politics
2 comments:
I believe that Trump will win the Republican nomination for president, as current polls indicate that he is leading in states like Florida and Ohio, and these states assign a huge number of delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Thus, even if Marco Rubio wins second place in Florida, he will gain no momentum from his own home state, and for that reason he will likely drop out. Honestly, I think that Rubio's days are numbered, because he really has no chance in Florida. He is a Junior Senator with a very poor attendance record, and he has been doing an incredibly poor job of representing his home state in the United States Congress. Unless there is a major statistical anomaly and Rubio wins Florida like Sanders won in Michigan, Trump is going to kick Rubio out of the race by winning his home state. The same will occur with Kasich- Trump is currently winning Ohio, and if Kasich (who already has a low number of delegates) loses in his own home state, he truly has no chance.
Even though Trump is leading the pack and is on a trajectory to win the nomination, he is far from being the optimal GOP candidate in the eyes of the Republican establishment. For that reason, I do not believe that Rubio will support a candidate like him, and instead he will join other Republicans in calling for a separate convention.
Currently, Trump looks almost guaranteed to win Florida, which would earn a big win of 99 delegates in the winner take all state. However, some polls show a close toss up between Kasich and Trump in Ohio. If Kasich wins Ohio he will simply be making it more difficult for Trump to win the needed 1,237 delegates by the time the convention happens in Cleveland. If prediction are correct and Trump wins Florida Rubio will almost certainly drop out of the presidential race as losing your home state is a massive embarrassment in the political arena. Some analysts are predicting that Rubio may drop out before the Florida primaries to save face and not hurt his political career. Cruz has been winning the more conservative states but with upcoming primaries in places such as New York, New Jersey, and California his delegate counts will likely continue to decrease. Cruz was supposed to win big in the southern primaries with the evangelical population that resides there. However, after North Carolina votes next week (where Trump currently leads) the southern primaries will be over and Cruz will be left with less conservative state with demographics that Trump appeals to. If Trump wins the nomination, which seems plausible unless there is a brokered election, Rubio will almost certainly stand behind him. At the past debate all the candidates were asked if they would support Trump if he were the nominee and they all said yes, ironic after Rubio and Cruz spent the entire debate attacking him. However, the Republican party has really put itself in a difficult position. The winner take all states can swing the delegate count to one candidate easily. I think the leaders of the Republican party are sitting and watching the primaries, with Trump's numbers going up and up, and thinking "What are we going to do."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-political-parties-splinter/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-would-be-easy-to-stop-under-democratic-rules/
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